In the next 20 years, Indonesia will no longer be the world's fourth most populous country.

In the next 20 years, Indonesia will no longer be the world's fourth most populous country.

Indonesia is projected to no longer be the world's fourth-most populous nation by 2045 due to declining birth rates, according to the Ministry of National Planning. A recent survey conducted by the ministry and the statistics agency indicates that Indonesia's population growth will slow to 0.4% in 2045, compared to 1.17% last year. This means that in the next 22 years, Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, will have a population of 324 million people, placing it behind Nigeria and Pakistan in terms of population ranking.

The Planning Minister, Suharso Monoarfa, stated that Indonesia's population growth is slowing down each year, with an average annual growth rate of 0.67% between 2020 and 2050. This finding reflects a global trend of significant population shifts, particularly in middle-income nations where incomes are changing and birth rates are decreasing. China, for example, lost its position as the world's most populous country to India, as Beijing reported a population decline for the first time in six decades last year.

Indonesia has been relying on its demographic dividend, which refers to the economic growth potential resulting from a larger working-age population, to overcome the "middle-income trap" and achieve its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045. The government has implemented a family planning campaign that aims not only to reduce the fertility rate but also to enhance the quality of human capital in terms of health, education, and employment. The proportion of Indonesians aged over 65 years old is projected to increase to 14.6% in 2045, up from 6.2% in 2020. On the other hand, the percentage of productive-age citizens (15-64 years old) will decline from 69.3% to 65.8% during the same period.

Monoarfa highlighted that the global population structure is undergoing rapid changes and emphasized the need for Indonesia to recover from the pandemic and pursue an inclusive and sustainable economic transformation moving forward.


Akhyari Hananto

I began my career in the banking industry in 1997, and stayed approx 6 years in it. This industry boost his knowledge about the economic condition in Indonesia, both macro and micro, and how to More understand it. My banking career continued in Yogyakarta when I joined in a program funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB),as the coordinator for a program aimed to help improve the quality of learning and teaching process in private universities in Yogyakarta. When the earthquake stroke Yogyakarta, I chose to join an international NGO working in the area of ?disaster response and management, which allows me to help rebuild the city, as well as other disaster-stricken area in Indonesia. I went on to become the coordinator for emergency response in the Asia Pacific region. Then I was assigned for 1 year in Cambodia, as a country coordinator mostly to deliver developmental programs (water and sanitation, education, livelihood). In 2009, he continued his career as a protocol and HR officer at the U.S. Consulate General in Surabaya, and two years later I joined the Political and Economic Section until now, where i have to deal with extensive range of people and government officials, as well as private and government institution troughout eastern Indonesia. I am the founder and Editor-in-Chief in Good News From Indonesia (GNFI), a growing and influential social media movement, and was selected as one of The Most Influential Netizen 2011 by The Marketeers magazine. I also wrote a book on "Fundamentals of Disaster Management in 2007"?, "Good News From Indonesia : Beragam Prestasi Anak Bangsa di dunia"? which was luanched in August 2013, and "Indonesia Bersyukur"? which is launched in Sept 2013. In 2014, 3 books were released in which i was one of the writer; "Indonesia Pelangi Dunia"?, "Indonesia The Untold Stories"? and "Growing! Meretas Jalan Kejayaan" I give lectures to students in lectures nationwide, sharing on full range of issues, from economy, to diplomacy Less
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