Over the last five years, Beijing has adopted a more assertive approach in Southeast Asia, both militarily and diplomatically. This includes increased militarization of the South China Sea, using fishing vessels and troops to restrict the activities of Southeast Asian fishing boats. China has also posed a growing threat to Taiwan and employed an aggressive "wolf warrior" style of diplomacy worldwide.
Surprisingly, despite these actions, China's influence in Southeast Asia has actually risen, while the United States has experienced a decline, according to a comprehensive study by the Lowy Institute. The study examined indicators such as economic relationships, defense networks, diplomatic influence, and cultural influence, concluding that China has surpassed the United States in all four categories in Southeast Asia over the past five years. Another study by the ISEAS Yusof-Ishak Institute in Singapore found that a majority of respondents considered China the dominant economic and political-strategic power in the region.
When analyzing the influence of both countries among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, the U.S. was found to be the most influential power in only two: the Philippines and Singapore. However, even in these states, the U.S. holds a tenuous lead. China's influence has even surpassed that of the U.S. in Thailand, a U.S. treaty ally. The ISEAS poll revealed that respondents from all ASEAN states considered China the most influential economic power in the region, and a majority also believed that China wields the most political and strategic influence.
Interestingly, the U.S. continues to lose influence in Southeast Asia despite the concerns of countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia about China's assertive military actions. The Lowy study highlights that the U.S. remains the dominant military power for many Southeast Asian states, although its influence in this area is also diminishing. Countries like Indonesia and Vietnam have pursued closer military cooperation with the U.S. but have been cautious not to provoke Beijing. The Philippines, as a U.S. treaty ally, has openly aligned with Washington and allowed the Pentagon access to strategic bases in case of a conflict over Taiwan. However, with the exception of the Philippines, other regional states increasingly accept Chinese dominance.
One significant reason for this trend is China's substantial economic dominance in the region, which leaves Southeast Asian countries feeling compelled to align with Beijing. The Lowy study reveals that in 2022, China had stronger economic relationships than the U.S. in every Southeast Asian country. China has also emerged as a lender of last resort during economic crises, providing aid and investment. This has swayed countries like Malaysia, even with its historically close relationship with the U.S., to lean toward China. Additionally, Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, are increasingly purchasing Chinese arms, indicating the convergence of China's military and economic influence. The U.S., on the other hand, has withdrawn from regional trade deals and disengaged from economic integration efforts, further eroding its economic influence.
The Biden administration's focus on rights and democracy has had little impact in the region, where most countries have autocratic or semi-autocratic systems. This emphasis may have contributed to China's growing cultural influence, aided by its extensive investments in soft power and sharp power initiatives.
The United States faces a choice: it can either continue with its current approach and further lose influence, or it can reassess its engagement with the region. Southeast Asia holds critical importance for U.S. efforts to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan and impose economic costs on Beijing if deterrence fails. However, maintaining the status quo is an unappealing option as the Lowy and ISEAS reports indicate that the United States is growing more distant from its close allies in Southeast Asia, which could prove costly and potentially dangerous in the future.
Source:
Kurlantzick, Joshua. “The U.S. Is Losing Ground to China in Southeast Asia.” Council on Foreign Relations, 8 June 2023, www.cfr.org/article/us-losing-ground-china-southeast-asia.
“Asia Power Snapshot: China and the United States in Southeast Asia.” Lowy Institute, www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/asia-power-snapshot-china-united-states-southeast-asia.
Leng, Teo Hwee. “The State of Southeast Asia: 2023 Survey Report - ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.” ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 9 Feb. 2023, www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2023-survey-report-2.
---. “The State of Southeast Asia: 2023 Survey Report - ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.” ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 9 Feb. 2023, www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2023-survey-report-2.
Heydarian, Richard Javad. “Marcos Is Bringing the Philippines Back Into the U.S. Fold.” World Politics Review, 17 Feb. 2023, www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-philippines-relations-marcos-military-politics-china.
