Seasia Stats Poll: Who Will Win the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election?

Seasia Stats Poll: Who Will Win the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election?

Indonesia is gearing up for its 2024 Presidential Election, where the nation's finest sons are stepping up to vie for the coveted position. In this electoral contest, three pairs have emerged as contenders for the presidency and vice presidency of Indonesia.

The first pair, referred to as Candidate Pair 01, comprises Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar. Anies Baswedan, with a background as an academician who has served as the Rector of Paramadina University (2007-2015), Minister of Education and Culture of Indonesia (2014-2016), and Governor of Jakarta (2017-2022), joins forces with Muhaimin Iskandar, a prominent figure born into the largest Islamic mass organization in Indonesia, Nahdlatul Ulama. Iskandar has led the National Awakening Party since 2005 and has long been entrenched in parliamentary roles. Candidate Pair 01 is endorsed by the National Awakening Party, NasDem Party, Prosperous Justice Party, and Ummat Party, forming the Coalition for Change.

On the other hand, Candidate Pair 02 consists of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka. Prabowo Subianto, a politician, entrepreneur, and senior military officer in Indonesia, founded the Great Indonesia Movement Party in 2008 and has led the party since 2014. He is joined by Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of the current President of Indonesia, Joko Widodo. Gibran, a politician and entrepreneur, currently serves as the Mayor of Surakarta. Candidate Pair 02 is supported by the Indonesian Forward Coalition, comprising the Great Indonesia Movement Party, Golkar Party, National Mandate Party, Democratic Party, four non-parliamentary parties (Crescent Star Party, Gelora Indonesia Party, Indonesian Solidarity Party, Garuda Party), one local party (Aceh Party), and one non-participating party in the 2024 General Election (Just and Prosperous People's Party).

Finally, Candidate Pair 03 is composed of Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD. Ganjar Pranowo, a politician who has served as a parliament member for nine years and Governor of Central Java (2013-2023), teams up with Mahfud MD, a politician and senior academician who has held positions such as Minister of Defense (2001-2002), Minister of Law and Human Rights (2001), Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court (2008-2013), and Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs (2019-2024). Candidate Pair 03 is backed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) and the United Development Party (PPP), along with two non-parliamentary parties (People's Conscience Party and United Indonesia Party).

According to the Seasia Stats Poll conducted on January 8, 2024, using a comment like method indicating support, Candidate Pair 01 garnered 47.15%, Candidate Pair 02 secured 41.43%, and Candidate Pair 03 obtained 11.42% out of a total of 3,729 accumulated likes as of February 9 at 6:24 AM (UTC+7).

The poll results suggest that Candidate Pair 01 holds a narrow lead over Candidate Pair 02, with Candidate Pair 03 trailing significantly. This marks a shift from earlier expectations, where Candidate Pair 02 was seen as the frontrunner, even surpassing Candidate Pair 01 by a considerable margin. However, recent developments have altered the political landscape, prompting supporters to reassess their allegiances or switch from Candidate Pair 02 to either Candidate Pair 01 or 03.

Previously, Candidate Pair 02 may had a high probability of winning, far ahead of Pair 01, let alone Pair 03. It's noteworthy that both Candidate Pair 01 and Candidate Pair 02 are popular on Instagram, indicating their closeness to young voters (Millennials and Generation Z) as well as urban residents.

Several factors have contributed to this shift, including explicit support from the incumbent President for Candidate Pair 02's campaign, criticism from various universities regarding the approach of the current administration, and prominent politicians, including former allies of the incumbent President, withdrawing their support or switching sides. Additionally, ministers loyal to the incumbent President have openly campaigned for Candidate Pair 02, despite holding key positions in the current government.

Consequently, it is anticipated that there will be a runoff election, as neither Candidate Pair is likely to secure an outright victory in the first round. Candidate Pairs 01 and 02 are expected to advance to the second round, while Candidate Pair 03 lags behind.

Seasia Stats Poll  in Instagram

In the second round, the outcome remains uncertain. Candidate Pair 02 may still prevail due to continued support from satisfied citizens and entrepreneurs, who appreciate the incumbent President's tenure and wish to see ongoing projects through. However, if Candidate Pair 03 forms a coalition with Candidate Pair 01, it could significantly boost the latter's chances of victory. Many alumni and supporters disillusioned with the incumbent President's performance may rally behind Candidate Pair 01, alongside former supporters of Candidate Pair 02 who defect to Candidate Pair 01 in pursuit of change.

Ultimately, the victor of the election will be entrusted with steering the nation forward. Regardless of the outcome, it is hoped that the chosen leadership will prioritize the interests and welfare of the Indonesian people.

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