Latest Analysis of Public Sentiment in ASEAN Countries Reveals a Significant Shift in Perception of Potential Strategic Partners. Survey data from the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute indicates a growing preference for China as the primary strategic partner, surpassing the United States. This dynamic signals a shift in the geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia.
The survey, conducted between January 3 and February 23 by the Singapore-based think tank, involved 1,994 respondents from various sectors, including academia, business, government, civil society, and media. The respondents represented ASEAN member countries, with the largest number of participants from Singapore and Indonesia.
New Trends in ASEAN Citizen Strategic Partnerships
The results show that in 2024, 50.5 percent of respondents across the ten ASEAN countries prefer China, while 49.5 percent favor the United States as a strategic partner.
This change is striking compared to last year’s data, when 38.9 percent favored China and 61.1 percent preferred the United States. Support for the U.S. as a strategic partner has also dropped to 49.5%, down from 61.1% last year.
For the first time since 2020, Beijing has overtaken Washington in this annual survey. Additionally, for four consecutive years, China and ASEAN have been each other's main trading partners, with total trade volume reaching $911.7 billion in 2023.
China Gains Popularity Among ASEAN Citizens
China has seen a significant surge in popularity in Southeast Asia, with support rising from 38.9% last year to 50.5% this year. This increase in support is especially evident in countries like Malaysia (75.1%), Indonesia (73.2%), Laos (70.6%), Brunei (70.1%), and Thailand (52.2%).
Notably, Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia—countries that have greatly benefited from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and strong trade relations—showed an increase of more than 20 percentage points in their support for China compared to last year.
In Cambodia, support for China rose by about 18 percentage points to 45% in 2024, although it still remains below 50 percent overall. A similar situation is observed in Thailand and Myanmar, where support increased by about 10 percentage points in each country, with Myanmar reaching a support level of 42.3% in 2024.
However, the shadow of China’s dominance looms large for many respondents, with 45.5% expressing concern over Beijing’s potential threat to their national sovereignty.
These concerns are especially pronounced in countries like the Philippines (90.2%) and Vietnam (72.5%), which face China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea.
Despite Decline, Three ASEAN Countries Maintain Loyalty to the U.S.
Meanwhile, support for the United States has declined by more than 10% from last year. Nevertheless, the U.S. still enjoys majority support in the Philippines (83.3%), Vietnam (79.0%), Singapore (61.5%), Myanmar (57.7%), and Cambodia (55.0%). This support highlights the resilience of the U.S. in some countries, despite an overall decrease.
In the Philippines, trust in the U.S. even increased significantly from 78.8% last year to 83.3% this year, reaching an all-time high. This rise aligns with the strengthening of the Philippines’ security alliance with the U.S. in response to China’s aggression in the South China Sea.
Other countries that continue to show strong support for the U.S. include Vietnam (79%) and Singapore (61.5%). In these three countries, support for the U.S. has remained stable compared to 2023.
