The latest State of Southeast Asia 2025 report by Singapore’s ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute reveals a growing divergence in strategic preferences across ASEAN member states. When asked which global power the region should align with—China or the United States—if forced to choose, the majority of respondents across the ten ASEAN countries (ASEAN-10) leaned slightly in favor of the United States (52.3%) over China (47.7%).
This narrow margin reflects ASEAN’s ongoing effort to balance economic and security interests amid increasing tensions between the two superpowers. While China has become a dominant economic force in the region, the US remains a key strategic and military partner for many ASEAN states.
Indonesia Leads in Pro-China Sentiment
Among all ASEAN nations surveyed, Indonesia stands out with the highest level of support for China at 72.2%, marking a noticeable increase from 2024. This is followed by Malaysia (70.8%), Thailand (55.6%), Brunei (55.0%), and Laos (51.0%).
The strong lean towards China in these countries is likely driven by deepening economic interdependence, heavy investment flows, and infrastructure development under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Indonesia, in particular, has been a major recipient of Chinese investment in large-scale projects like high-speed rail and energy infrastructure.
Additionally, recent dissatisfaction with US foreign policy—especially its stance on the Israel–Gaza conflict—may have contributed to declining public trust in American global leadership, subtly nudging sentiments in favor of Beijing.
Philippines Most Pro-US in the Region
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Philippines shows the highest support for the United States at 86.4%, underscoring its strong historical, military, and political ties with Washington. The US has long been a defense ally of the Philippines, and recent cooperation in joint maritime patrols and expanded access to Philippine military bases have reinforced this alliance.
Other countries that strongly favor alignment with the US include Vietnam (73.5%), Myanmar (57.7%), Cambodia (57.0%), and Singapore (52.9%). In both the Philippines and Vietnam, territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea have significantly shaped public opinion and foreign policy leanings. These nations view Washington as a critical counterbalance to China’s growing assertiveness in the region.
Timor-Leste Leans Westward
Though not yet a full member of ASEAN, Timor-Leste’s respondents were also surveyed for the first time. A majority—59.1%—indicated a preference for the United States, placing the country closer in sentiment to nations like Vietnam and Singapore.
ASEAN’s Delicate Balancing Act
The divide between economic engagement with China and security reliance on the US highlights the geopolitical tightrope ASEAN continues to walk. While the region largely resists the idea of having to choose sides outright, this hypothetical question reveals the underlying anxieties and calculations shaping ASEAN’s diplomatic posture.
As global rivalries intensify, ASEAN will likely continue seeking ways to maintain its centrality and strategic autonomy, engaging both powers while avoiding binary alignments that could undermine regional cohesion and stability.
