Indonesia is projected to become one of the five largest economic powers in the world by 2050. This projection was conveyed by Airlangga Hartarto, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, who stated that the country is on the right path to reach this target if it can maintain economic growth and strengthen structural reforms.
According to long-term projections presented at the Tokyo Conference 2026, Indonesia is expected to have a gross domestic product (GDP) of around 10 to 11 trillion US dollars by 2050. This figure would place Indonesia as the third-largest economy in Asia, after China and India.
What’s Powering Indonesia’s Economy
Optimism about Indonesia’s economic prospects is based on several economic indicators considered stable. One of them is the country’s trade surplus, which has continued for 69 consecutive months until early this year.
In addition, foreign exchange reserves remain at a safe level and inflation has stayed within the government’s target range. These conditions strengthen confidence that the domestic economy has a solid foundation to sustain growth.
In the short term, the government projects Indonesia’s economy to grow by around 5.4 percent in 2026. To support this target, the government is accelerating several development strategies, including the construction of strategic infrastructure, downstream processing of mineral resources, the development of electric vehicles, and the expansion of renewable energy.
Digital transformation, industrialization, and the strengthening of domestic supply chains have also become key policy priorities. These efforts are being implemented through the “Indonesia Incorporated” strategy, which aims to strengthen synergy between the government and the private sector in driving economic development.
Asia Expected to Dominate the Global Economy
Airlangga Hartarto also highlighted Asia’s vast potential in the future global economic landscape. The region is projected to contribute around 52 percent of the world’s total GDP by 2050.
“If Asia remains committed to open cooperation and rejects zero-sum competition, then 2050 could become the Asian century,” Airlangga said.
According to the projection, China is expected to have a GDP of nearly 58 trillion US dollars by 2050, followed by India with around 44 trillion US dollars. Indonesia is projected to rank third in Asia, with an economy valued at 10 to 11 trillion US dollars, surpassing Japan, which is estimated to reach 8 to 9 trillion US dollars, and South Korea with around 3 to 4 trillion US dollars.
Meanwhile, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is also expected to play an increasingly important role as one of the world’s major economic blocs. At present, the region has a collective GDP of around 4.13 trillion US dollars.
Global Geopolitical Challenges
Despite the positive outlook, Airlangga warned that several global challenges must be carefully monitored. Rising geopolitical tensions, increasing protectionism, and declining confidence in the multilateral system are among the factors that could affect global economic stability.
He also pointed to fluctuations in global energy prices caused by tensions in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The tensions temporarily pushed global oil prices above 100 US dollars per barrel after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, before stabilizing at around 90.42 US dollars per barrel as of March 10, 2026.
In response to these conditions, Airlangga emphasized the importance of strengthening economic connectivity and maintaining an open international trading system.
“Rather than fragmentation, we must strengthen connectivity. Rather than protectionism, we must reinforce open and rules-based trade,” he said.
