As two of ASEAN’s founding members, established on August 8, 1967 in Bangkok, Indonesia and Thailand have maintained diplomatic relations for over seven decades, dating back to March 7, 1950. It is anticipated that by 2030, the two nations will enter a new phase of increasingly strategic and comprehensive bilateral relations. Southeast Asia currently stands at a historic crossroads.
Amidst intensifying rivalry between the United States (US) and China, the emergence of a global trade war, and open conflict in the Middle East that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, ASEAN, the region's largest institution faces an existential test.
While member states have long upheld ‘ASEAN Centrality’, positioning the bloc as the pivot of the Indo-Pacific regional architecture, the organization is indeed now under greater pressure from international events than at any time since its founding in 1967.
This article aims to describe the prospects for bilateral cooperation between Indonesia and Thailand within the framework of ASEAN 2030, covering economic, security, and socio-cultural aspects, as well as the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
Strengthening the Strategic Partnership
A significant milestone in bilateral relations was reached in May 2025, when both nations agreed to elevate their ties to a Strategic Partnership during the inaugural Leaders' Consultation Meeting in Bangkok.
This agreement was subsequently reinforced by the adoption of the Indonesia-Thailand Strategic Partnership Roadmap 2026–2030 in August 2026, serving as a guideline for cooperation over the ensuing five years.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto emphasized that this elevation in the relationship's status reflects the long-term commitment of both nations. The visit to Indonesia by Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul in August 2026, the first official visit by a Thai prime minister in 15 years, has marked the beginning of a new era in the dynamics of bilateral interaction between the two countries.
Economic Cooperation: Targets and Priority Sectors
The economic sector remains a key pillar of bilateral relations. Both nations aim to increase bilateral trade to US$20 billion by 2030. Therefore, as of 2024, bilateral trade has surpassed US$17 billion, with Thai investment in Indonesia approaching US$1.5 billion over the past five years.
To achieve this target, a Joint Trade Committee (JTC) was established as the primary bilateral mechanism to address trade barriers and unlock new business opportunities. Cooperation has expanded into several priority sectors, including:
First, Food Security and Agriculture. Both countries have agreed to strengthen cooperation in agricultural technology, logistics, food processing, and supply chain resilience. Thailand has offered to increase its purchases of Indonesian urea fertilizer if Indonesia opens its market to Thai rice and meat.
Second, Energy and Green Transition. The Indonesia-Thailand Energy Forum was launched as a platform to bolster energy security and accelerate the transition toward sustainable energy. Cooperation encompasses renewable energy development, the expansion of smart grid systems, and cross-border electricity connectivity.
Third, Digital and Halal Economies. Both nations are expanding the use of Local Currency Transactions (LCT) to enhance the efficiency of cross-border transactions. In the halal sector, Indonesia and Thailand complement each other: Indonesia possesses a vast Muslim consumer market, while Thailand offers production capacity and established halal standards.
Regional Security and Stability Cooperation
As founding members of ASEAN, Thailand and Indonesia share a responsibility to maintain peace and stability in the region. Security cooperation has been further strengthened through collaboration among law enforcement agencies to combat rising transnational crime, including online fraud, human trafficking, and drug smuggling.
The Thailand government so far has assisted over 1,000 Indonesian citizens who fell victim to online fraud syndicates in returning home. The two countries also maintain close military ties across all service branches and regularly conduct joint exercises. At the regional level, both nations are committed to supporting the implementation of the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus to resolve the Myanmar crisis peacefully.
Enhancing connectivity has become a priority with the launch of direct flight routes between Jakarta and Bangkok, as well as between Denpasar and Phuket. During a recent meeting in Jakarta, Prime Minister Anutin proposed a concept to link the mainland and archipelagic regions by positioning Thailand as a manufacturing hub, while establishing Indonesia as a major market and a gateway for the rapidly growing cross-border maritime economy in the Indo-Pacific.
Despite high levels of optimism, several challenges remain to be addressed. The ambition of ASEAN leaders to increase intra-ASEAN trade from 21% to 35% of total trade requires serious commitment from the leaders of all member states. Global trade policy uncertainty and economic volatility also pose external risks that must be anticipated through concrete, measurable, and transparent solutions.
Nevertheless, with a combined population of approximately 350 million and a commitment to evolve from mere trading partners into co-creative partners, Indonesia and Thailand possess immense potential to serve as the engines of ASEAN’s growth leading up to 2030.
The future of bilateral cooperation between Indonesia and Thailand leading up to 2030 shows a strong positive trend. The strengthening of the strategic partnership bilaterally, ambitious trade targets, and expanded cooperation across various sectors, ranging from food, energy, and the digital economy to security collaboration, reflect a shared vision of realizing an ASEAN region that is more integrated, resilient, and prosperous.
Looking ahead, as the two largest economies in Southeast Asia, the cooperation between Indonesia and Thailand is expected not only to benefit the economic growth of both nations but also to serve as a vital foundation for the future of ASEAN as a whole.
