Will the Philippines' GDP hit $1 trillion in 10 years?

The Philippines is on course to become a $1 trillion economy by 2033, joining a small club of Asia-Pacific (APAC) nations, according to London-based information company IHS Markit.

The Philippine economy is expected to continue growing rapidly over the next decade, according to Rajiv Biswas, IHS Markit's chief economist for the Asia Pacific, in a report released on Friday, with total gross domestic product (GDP) expected to increase from $360 billion in 2020 to $810 billion in 2030.

Private consumer spending increase — fueled by a significant rise in urban family incomes — will be a critical economic driver, he said.

"By 2033, the Philippines is expected to join the Asia-Pacific region's trillion-dollar economy, joining mainland China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, and Indonesia in this grouping of the region's greatest economies," Biswas said.

He noted that the Philippines' solid economic development is expected to sustain a large increase in per capita GDP, which is expected to reach $6,500 in 2030, up from $3,300 in 2020. This will contribute to the growth of the local consumer market in the Philippines by attracting both international and domestic investment in a diverse range of businesses.

The Philippines will also benefit from its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the IHS Markit economist said, due to the deal's very favorable rules of origin, which will aid in the development of industrial supply chains across the RCEP area.

"This will assist in attracting foreign direct investment for a variety of industrial and infrastructure projects in RCEP member countries, especially in low-cost manufacturing centers like the Philippines," he said.

As a consequence, Biswas feels that the Philippine economy's prospects for the next decade are quite favorable, with tremendous economic development advancement.

Additionally, he said that fast-expanding per capita GDP and living standards would lead to a widespread improvement in human development indices over the next decade, resulting in a major decrease in the number of people living in severe poverty.
Following the pandemic's negative consequences, the country's economic management earlier said that the path to recovery was now completely open.

With a robust 7.7% fourth-quarter expansion, they forecast full-year GDP growth of 5.6 percent for 2021, above the Development Budget Coordination Committee's objective of 5 to 5.5 percent.

"The good performance in 2021 demonstrates that we are on the right track for a durable recovery. The groundwork is now prepared for rapid development in 2022 "Economic managers supplemented.

Additionally, they anticipate that the nation will not only be able to revert to pre-pandemic levels this year, but will also achieve the status of an upper-middle-income country.

"We have implemented multiple game-changing changes during the course of the Duterte administration and will continue to do so in the last months. We will continue to seek structural changes that will strengthen the country's resilience to future crises and improve our chances for development "According to economic managers.