A new study reveals that climate change significantly intensified the extreme heatwaves that scorched Asia this year. Since April, record-breaking temperatures swept across the continent, from India to the Philippines, triggering school closures and health warnings. This marks the third consecutive year of brutal heatwaves in Asia, shattering records and causing dozens of fatalities.
The World Weather Attribution (WWA) study found that human-induced climate change, driven by burning fossil fuels, made this year's heatwave "virtually impossible" in the Philippines and considerably harsher in South and West Asia. April was the hottest globally on record, with temperatures exceeding 40°C in many Asian countries.
The scorching heat caused school closures in the Philippines and Bangladesh, while droughts intensified. In the Philippines, a 300-year-old town emerged from a dried-up dam, and Vietnam witnessed mass fish deaths due to dwindling water levels. India saw temperatures reach a scorching 46°C, with five heatwave-related deaths reported. Meanwhile, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and the Philippines all set new records for their hottest April day. Tragically, Thailand and Bangladesh suffered over 30 heatwave-related deaths each. Scientists believe these numbers are just a fraction of the true toll, as heat-related deaths are often underreported.
The study analyzed weather data and climate models to quantify the impact of human-induced warming on the extreme temperatures. They compared current conditions, with roughly 1.2°C of global warming, to pre-industrial times. The analysis focused on West Asia (including Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan) and the Philippines, where the heat was most severe.
The findings in West Asia revealed that heatwaves exceeding 40°C have become more frequent due to human activity. Currently, similar heatwaves are expected every ten years, but climate change makes them five times more likely and 1.7°C hotter. Scientists warn that future heatwaves in West Asia could become even more frequent and intense, with similar events potentially occurring every five years with an additional 1°C increase if global warming reaches 2°C. El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon, had no influence on the high temperatures in West Asia.
The situation in the Philippines is even more alarming. Here, similar heatwaves are expected every ten years during El Niño and every twenty years during normal conditions. However, the study suggests that without human-induced climate change, such an extreme event would have been virtually impossible, even under El Niño. Climate change added 1°C to this year's heatwave, with El Niño contributing an additional 0.2°C. With global warming reaching 2°C, similar heatwaves in the Philippines could occur every two to three years, with an additional 0.7°C increase in temperature.
South Asia faces a similar threat. The study indicates that 30-day heatwaves, once expected every thirty years, are now about 45 times more likely and 0.85°C hotter due to climate change. El Niño events double the likelihood of such heatwaves.
The report underscores how the climate crisis disproportionately impacts vulnerable populations in Asia, particularly those living in poverty or war-torn regions. In Gaza, for instance, 1.7 million displaced people residing in makeshift tents with limited access to healthcare, clean water, and cooling options face immense challenges during heatwaves.
Dr. Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, emphasizes, "Heatwaves have always happened. But the additional heat, driven by emissions from oil, gas and coal, is resulting in death for many people."
Across South and Southeast Asia, hundreds of millions of people are particularly vulnerable, including those living in informal housing and working outdoors, such as farmers, construction workers, and street vendors. UNICEF has already raised concerns about 243 million children exposed to these harsher and longer heatwaves, putting them at risk of heat-related illnesses and even death.
Scientists urge for immediate action, including implementing heat action plans and drastically reducing carbon pollution to prevent further temperature escalation.
