In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the Philippines will be the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia and the second fastest in Asia for the next two years.
The Philippines' gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6% this year, outpacing other ASEAN countries and trailing only India, which is projected to grow by 7.5%.
The Philippines is expected to outpace several countries in terms of GDP growth this year, including China (5%), Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.4%), Kazakhstan (3.5%), Iran (3.3%), Thailand (2.9%), Egypt (2.7%), South Korea (2.5%), Pakistan (2%), Saudi Arabia (1.7%), and Japan (0.7%).
In 2025, the IMF projects that the Philippine economy will continue to grow at a rate of 6.2%, just behind India, which is projected to grow at 6.5%. This growth is higher than the IMF's projections for the ASEAN-5 region (Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia).
The IMF forecasts global growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, which are not significantly different from previous estimates. For the ASEAN-5 region, the IMF forecasts growth of 4.5% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025.
In addition, the IMF has raised its growth forecasts for emerging and developing Asia. This region is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025.
Emerging Asia, particularly India and China, is expected to be the main driver of the global economy this year, contributing half of global growth.
However, the outlook for the next five years appears weaker, mainly due to slowing momentum in emerging Asia. The IMF has revised its growth forecast for the Philippines to 6% this year from 6.2% previously, partly due to slower-than-expected growth in the first quarter.
Nevertheless, Philippine GDP growth is expected to rebound in 2025, driven by rising domestic demand, investment and consumption, as well as stable inflation and monetary easing.
Despite the weaker long-term outlook, Asian economies remain a key driver of global growth in the near term.
