For the first time in nine years, South Korea's fertility rate has risen, halting a record-low decline. The country's fertility rate had fallen for eight consecutive years, making it the only OECD member with a rate below 1.
According to Statistics Korea, the fertility rate rose to 0.75 in 2024, up from a record low of 0.72 in 2023. Since 2015, when the fertility rate was 1.24, it had declined for eight consecutive years, making South Korea the country with the lowest fertility rate in the world.
In Seoul, the capital city where more than 18% of the country's population lives, the fertility rate is even lower at just 0.58.
By comparison, Japan, which faces similar challenges with an aging population, has a fertility rate of 1.2. To maintain population stability, however, the ideal fertility rate is 2.1.
Latest Demographic Report
According to a national demographic report released last week, the number of registered births last year exceeded 240,000 babies. While this is a slight increase from the previous year's 235,000 births, it remains well below the average of 600,000-700,000 births per year in the 1990s.
In addition, there was a population deficit of 120,000 due to deaths outnumbering births last year.
Experts believe that the increase in births is closely linked to a significant increase in marriages in South Korea. The number of marriages in 2024 jumped 14.9% from the previous year, the largest increase since data collection began in 1970.
A Long-Term Challenge
Despite a slight increase in births last year, South Korea continues to face demographic challenges due to the long-term downward trend.
The national population has remained relatively stagnant in recent years, declining slightly to 51.2 million in 2023 after peaking in 2020. A 1.7% rise in deaths last year has further exacerbated the pressure on population growth.
The age structure is becoming increasingly imbalanced: those in their 50s make up 17% of the population, while children under 10 account for only 6.13%, reflecting the low birth rate. At the same time, the working-age population (15–64 years) continues to shrink, while the elderly population (65 and older) has grown by 5.41% and now represents over 20% of the total population.
These changes place South Korea in the category of a "super-aged society," with structural consequences such as fiscal pressure on the pension system, increased demand for healthcare services, and the risk of a shrinking productive workforce.
Rising Marriages, Uncertain Future
The significant rise in marriages in South Korea, particularly in 2024, is attributed to a combination of structural factors and social shifts. According to officials from Statistics Korea in a press conference this week, this trend has been influenced by the post-pandemic recovery, demographic changes, and evolving societal values that are more accepting of marriage and child-rearing.
Park Hyun-jung from Statistics Korea emphasized that younger generations are now more optimistic about marriage, although the specific contribution of each factor remains difficult to measure. Park also noted that the interaction between various elements, such as government policies, economic stability, and social dynamics—has reinforced this trend.
Another key driver is the entry of the 30–34 age group into family life. This generation, born between 1991 and 1995, is the offspring of the country’s second baby boom generation (born 1964–1974), which accounts for 18.6% of the population.
As the largest productive age group, they have played a crucial role in the recent rise in marriages and births. However, the sustainability of this trend will depend on systematic efforts to address structural challenges such as living costs and economic uncertainty.
