For decades, Vietnam has been praised as one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economies, with steady industrial progress and strong global partnerships. But behind the headlines, the country is now quietly battling a demographic shift that could shape its long-term future: a shrinking birth rate.
According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the national fertility rate has steadily declined over the last few years, dropping from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to just 1.91 in 2024.
In major cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, the rates are even lower, reaching 1.39 and 1.32 respectively. These figures fall far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.
From Family Planning to Population Growth
Vietnam’s current demographic concern marks a sharp turn from its past. In 1988, the country officially introduced a two-child policy to curb high population growth following decades of war and hardship. The policy was widely promoted through public campaigns and integrated into civil service incentives.
However, with fertility rates plunging and an aging population on the rise, the government officially scrapped the two-child limit in 2023. The reversal came alongside a set of new pro-natal policies aimed at encouraging young families to have more children.
These include direct financial incentives of around 120 USD for women under 35 who have two children, extended maternity leave of up to six months, and even free education through high school in some areas like Ho Chi Minh City.
Matchmaking events and public messaging campaigns have also been launched to promote family building among young urban dwellers. In some cases, local authorities are actively working to change the perception that having more than one child is a burden.
What’s Behind the Falling Birth Rate?
Despite government incentives, many young Vietnamese couples are choosing to delay or avoid having children altogether. Economic pressures, rising costs of living, and evolving social values are among the key reasons. In large cities, raising children can be financially draining due to expensive childcare, housing, and education.
Additionally, an increasing number of women are focusing on career development, leading to later marriage and lower birth rates. Interviews with young professionals in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City reveal a growing preference for smaller families, often driven by the desire to maintain personal freedom and financial stability.
A 37-year-old marketing manager in Hanoi told Kompas, "Raising even one child is a full-time commitment. I want to give my child the best, but I also want to live a life that I’m happy with."
The Long-Term Implications
The impact of declining birth rates is not just social but also economic. Vietnam is expected to become an "aged society" by 2034, with more than 20 percent of its population over the age of 60. By 2050, this proportion could exceed 25 percent.
This shift will place growing pressure on the national pension system, healthcare infrastructure, and labor market.
According to projections, pension costs could rise from 2 percent of GDP to more than 5 percent by 2080, if current trends continue. With fewer working-age citizens, sustaining economic growth and productivity will become increasingly difficult.
A Cautionary Tale for the Region
Vietnam’s demographic shift serves as a timely reminder for other Southeast Asian nations currently enjoying a demographic dividend. While many countries in the region still have relatively young populations, the window of opportunity is narrowing.
Policymakers must look ahead and invest in sustainable family support systems before facing similar challenges.
Vietnam’s response so far shows a willingness to adapt, but changing deep-seated social and economic trends will take time. The challenge now is not only to stop the decline but also to build a society where having children is both desirable and manageable.
