How Washington's transactional diplomacy is forcing ASEAN to look inward and forge its own path.
The 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Kuala Lumpur was meant to be a showcase of regional stability. It became, instead, a quiet study in collective restraint as Southeast Asia grappled with the jarring unpredictability of its oldest strategic partner, the United States.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s mission to reaffirm Washington’s commitment was dead on arrival, torpedoed by President Donald Trump’s sudden threat of tariffs on 14 nations, 10 of them in Asia. With new levies of up to 40% looming, the message received in the region was not one of partnership, but of punitive transactionalism.
A Trust Deficit
For decades, ASEAN has been a patient partner in the American-led order. We have opened markets, welcomed investment, and participated in U.S.-led regional security frameworks. This patience, however, is being tested by what is increasingly seen as erratic policy-making. The recent tariff threats are not an isolated incident but the culmination of a growing trust deficit.
The specifics are jarring. Indonesia, after pledging $34 billion in new U.S. imports, was met with a 32% tariff notice. Malaysia, as this year’s ASEAN Chair, found itself facing a 25% hike. Cambodia, the ASEAN-U.S. dialogue coordinator, is staring down some of the steepest penalties at 36%, a bitter pill for a nation attempting to cautiously diversify its partnerships.
While Rubio may insist that better deals are possible, the approach feels less like negotiation and more like coercion. It forces a painful question upon the region: is this a partnership of mutual respect, or one of subordination?
For a region that prizes stability and "face," this transactionalism is more than just frustrating; it is corrosive. Partnership, in the ASEAN context, is a long-term investment built on predictability and trust. Washington, it seems, is treating it like a short-term stock trade—to be dumped when the numbers don’t look right. This isn’t just bad policy; it is a fundamental misreading of the regional psyche.
The Pull of Beijing
Washington's volatility creates a vacuum that Beijing is more than willing to fill—not with bombast, but with strategic consistency. At the same Kuala Lumpur summit, China quietly expanded its free trade framework with ASEAN. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s critique of U.S. tariffs as an “attempt to deprive all parties of their legitimate right to development” was astute political theatre, but it landed effectively because it contrasted so sharply with America's actions.
This is not a matter of ideology, but of pragmatism. In 2024, China-ASEAN trade surpassed $900 billion, dwarfing the bloc's trade with the U.S. Beijing offers what the region desperately needs: infrastructure capital, technological integration, and market access, all framed within its Belt and Road Initiative.
To be clear, this is not a blind embrace. Southeast Asian nations are deeply wary of over-dependence on any single power and harbour their own complex territorial and political issues with Beijing. The goal has always been to maintain a strategic hedge. Yet, Washington's current posture is making that balancing act increasingly precarious.
The dilemma for ASEAN is therefore no longer about choosing between a democratic partner and an authoritarian one. In the harsh light of economic reality, it has become a choice between a predictable partner and an erratic one. And in geopolitics, as in business, predictability is currency.
The Real Realignment: ASEAN Looks Inward
Perhaps the most significant consequence of America’s diplomatic missteps is not a pivot to China, but a pivot inward. The episode has injected a new urgency into ASEAN’s own integration project. This is the sound of ASEAN waking up to the fact that its greatest strategic asset is not a foreign security guarantee, but a unified market of 650 million people.
Singapore’s Foreign Minister, Vivian Balakrishnan, captured this sentiment perfectly, urging ASEAN to “double down” on removing internal trade barriers. Relying less on external powers for economic growth, he argued, is a path of “no regret.”
This is not just diplomatic talk; it is strategic realism taking root. Former Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya voiced an even starker view: “Maybe we forget about the external market, especially the U.S., for the time being and regroup.” This isn't born of anti-Americanism, but of a sober assessment that the region can no longer afford to have its fortunes dictated by Washington's volatile domestic politics. The wobbling pillar can no longer be leaned upon.
A Pen in ASEAN's Hand
Ultimately, the era of Southeast Asia serving as a passive stage for great power competition is over. The questions are no longer about what ASEAN will do for the U.S., but what the U.S., if anything, can credibly offer a self-actualizing ASEAN. Finding the right answer will require a level of humility Washington has yet to display.
The current turbulence is indeed a symptom of global realignment. But the story is not simply one of American decline or Chinese ascendancy. It is a story of ASEAN's own maturation. The U.S., once the primary architect of the regional order, now appears as a disruptive force within it.
Marco Rubio was right when he told the assembled ministers that “this century and the next” will be written in Southeast Asia. The irony is that his own administration's actions are compelling the region to pick up the pen and write a future less dependent on Washington's chapter. And it is a story that America may not enjoy reading.
Sources:
- IP Quarterly. (n.d.). China’s Trump playbook pays off—for now. Retrieved from https://ip-quarterly.com/en/chinas-trump-playbook-pays-now
- Channel News Asia. (2025, July 11). ASEAN should double down on its integration amid Trump tariff threat: Vivian Balakrishnan. Retrieved from https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/asean-should-double-down-its-integration-amid-trump-tariff-threat-vivian-balakrishnan-5233261
- Nye, J. S. (2025, March). The future of the world order under a second Trump presidency. Project Syndicate. Retrieved from https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/future-of-world-order-second-trump-presidency-american-decline-by-joseph-s-nye-2025-03
