Southeast Asia is nurturing a big dream to build nuclear power plants as a way out of its dependence on coal and gas. However, this dream comes at a high price.
According to analysis by Wood Mackenzie, the region will require at least US$200 billion per year until 2030 for energy transition, with three-quarters of that earmarked for clean energy—including nuclear. The reality today, however, is far behind: only around US$30 billion per year has been mobilized.
This raises the big question: can Southeast Asia actually make its nuclear ambitions happen?
Why Nuclear Is Back on the Table
Nuclear power offers something that other renewables cannot: stable, carbon-free electricity that can run continuously regardless of weather conditions. With electricity demand rising sharply across ASEAN, governments are beginning to consider it as a long-term solution.
The spotlight is now on small modular reactors (SMRs). Smaller, more flexible, and faster to build, SMRs can be deployed in locations unsuitable for large conventional plants.
They can even be constructed incrementally to match growing demand. Though their generation costs are higher, the speed and scalability make SMRs appealing to developing countries aiming to accelerate their energy transition.
Two Possible Futures
In its latest report “What if Southeast Asia goes nuclear?”, Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac) outlines two possible scenarios for the region’s nuclear pathway.
- Base Case Scenario (70% likelihood): No nuclear power is added through 2050 due to high costs and regulatory hurdles. Only after that period will the Philippines begin building nuclear capacity.
- Nuclear Scenario (30% likelihood): All ASEAN countries actively develop nuclear power, requiring US$208 billion in investments to reach 25 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050.
Under the nuclear scenario, the projected capacity per country is:
- Vietnam: 9.6 GW (all PWR)
- Indonesia: 7.8 GW (all SMR)
- Thailand: 3 GW (SMR)
- Philippines: 2.4 GW (SMR)
- Malaysia: 1.2 GW (SMR)
- Singapore: 0.8 GW (SMR)
WoodMac stresses that while SMRs are expensive—around US$220/MWh, more than double large PWRs—their ability to move from approval to operation within 2–3 years is a game-changer compared to the 10–30 years typically required for conventional plants.
Vietnam Takes the Lead
Among ASEAN nations, Vietnam is the most prepared to lead the nuclear charge. The country’s power demand has doubled over the past decade.
While Vietnam has aggressively developed solar and wind, much of the demand surge has been met with coal. As a result, coal-fired capacity jumped from 13 GW in 2015 to more than 27 GW by 2024, with another 6 GW still in development.
WoodMac projects Vietnam as the only ASEAN nation likely to build a conventional pressurized water reactor (PWR). The government is targeting between 10.5–14 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050. Costs for new PWRs are reportedly already lower than planned LNG-to-power fleets, making nuclear a competitive alternative for Vietnam’s future energy mix.
The Regional Outlook
Beyond Vietnam, several other countries are reviving or exploring nuclear ambitions:
Philippines
After its Bataan Nuclear Power Plant never entered operation in the 1980s, the country is rebooting its efforts. Its 2024 Nuclear Energy Roadmap envisions two reactors online by 2032 and 4.8 GW of capacity by 2050.
Thailand
Signed an MoU with Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power to study SMRs, with an initial target of 600 MW by 2037 and 3 GW by 2050.
Malaysia
Disbanded its nuclear program in 2018, but has relaunched a feasibility study. SMR capacity of 1.2 GW is targeted by 2050.
Indonesia
Included two 250 MW SMRs in its 2025–2034 power supply plan, aiming for 5% of generation from nuclear by 2040.
Singapore
Still exploring advanced nuclear technologies, but the IAEA suggests it could begin building before 2030, with capacity of 0.8 GW by 2050.
Obstacles on the Path to Nuclear
Despite the optimism, Southeast Asia’s nuclear pathway is fraught with challenges. Public sentiment remains cautious, shaped by the lingering shadows of Chernobyl and Fukushima. Social and political support is far from guaranteed.
Financially, nuclear is far more capital-intensive compared to renewables, and international funding streams for nuclear projects are more limited. While SMRs offer deployment speed, their electricity cost is still significantly higher.
On top of that, ASEAN countries face a shortage of skilled talent, regulatory frameworks, and robust nuclear safety infrastructure. Building reactors means also building the educational, industrial, and regulatory ecosystem to support them—something most countries in the region have yet to establish.
Can the Dream Be Realized?
Southeast Asia’s nuclear dreams come with a hefty US$200 billion price tag, and the path ahead is uncertain. Wood Mackenzie assigns only a 30% probability that the nuclear scenario will materialize by 2050.
Still, if successful, nuclear energy could be transformative. It could help the region shed its heavy dependence on coal and establish a stable, zero-carbon power backbone.
The key question is not whether Southeast Asia wants nuclear power, but whether it can marshal the political will, financial muscle, and public trust to make it happen.
