When Timor Leste officially joined ASEAN in 2025, it marked a historic moment for the region. For the first time, every sovereign nation in Southeast Asia was under the same umbrella. The inclusion of Timor Leste completed ASEAN’s geographic map, transforming the bloc into a truly regional community.
But this milestone also raised a new question, what’s next for ASEAN? Should it continue expanding its membership or focus on strengthening internal unity and global influence? The answer may not lie in numbers, but in strategy.
The Rise of “ASEAN Fever”
In recent years, ASEAN has evolved from a regional alliance into a global player. With a combined GDP that now ranks as the fifth-largest in the world, the bloc’s economic weight is undeniable. At the same time, ASEAN’s diplomatic approach, grounded in neutrality, consensus, and non-interference, has turned it into one of the most trusted multilateral platforms in Asia.
This growing influence has sparked what analysts call “ASEAN Fever”, the rising interest from countries outside Southeast Asia to engage more deeply with the bloc. Nations like Brazil, Bangladesh, and Serbia have all expressed interest in formal cooperation, either through Dialogue Partnerships or deeper diplomatic ties.
However, when it comes to full membership, ASEAN’s Charter is clear: only countries located within Southeast Asia can join. And that rule leaves only one realistic candidate.
Papua New Guinea: The Only Geographic Candidate
If ASEAN ever considers adding a 12th member, Papua New Guinea (PNG) is the only viable option based on geography. Sharing the island of New Guinea with Indonesia, PNG has deep cultural and historical links to Southeast Asia. It already holds Observer Status within ASEAN and actively participates in its regional activities.
Yet, the case for PNG isn’t straightforward. While geographically close, the country is more commonly identified as part of Melanesia and the Pacific, not Southeast Asia. Bringing PNG into the fold would require ASEAN to stretch its own regional definition, something that could challenge the bloc’s foundational principle of identity.
The Challenge of Expansion
Expanding ASEAN might sound appealing on paper, but it comes with real challenges. The organization already manages one of the most complex bureaucratic systems in the world, holding more than 1,000 meetings every year across different sectors. Adding new members would inevitably make decision-making slower and coordination harder.
There’s also the issue of consensus, ASEAN’s decision-making mechanism relies on every member agreeing before action can be taken. As the group grows larger, achieving that consensus becomes more difficult, especially on sensitive topics like maritime disputes or human rights issues.
Moreover, expansion would bring financial and logistical burdens. Each new member adds to the costs of meetings, programs, and integration efforts. That’s why, for now, many observers believe ASEAN’s focus will shift toward internal consolidation rather than geographic expansion.
An Era of Consolidation: The ASEAN 11
The integration of Timor Leste itself presents a major test for ASEAN’s capacity. As one of the region’s smallest and youngest economies, Timor Leste still faces challenges in governance, infrastructure, and human resource development. Ensuring that it can fully participate in ASEAN’s economic and political frameworks will take time and collective effort.
Instead of seeking new members, ASEAN is expected to deepen its external partnerships. Countries like Brazil, Bangladesh, and Saudi Arabia are already strengthening ties with the bloc through dialogue mechanisms, showing that ASEAN’s influence continues to grow even without formal expansion.
This approach allows ASEAN to maintain its Southeast Asian identity while expanding its global reach, a balance that has long defined its diplomatic strength. By consolidating its current membership, ASEAN can focus on efficiency, unity, and its role as a neutral hub in a polarized world.
Strength in Staying United
After decades of growth, ASEAN stands at a crossroads. Expansion beyond Southeast Asia may bring prestige, but consolidation promises stability and purpose.
The bloc’s strength has always been its diversity, 11 nations bound by shared goals of peace, cooperation, and prosperity. The post–Timor Leste era is not about adding new flags but about reinforcing the values that made ASEAN successful in the first place.
In the coming years, ASEAN’s greatest achievement may not be who joins next, but how strongly its members can move forward together. The era of ASEAN 11 has begun and it might just be the most strategic one yet.
