From 10 to 21 November 2025, the world will gather in Belém, Brazil, for the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30). Set in the gateway to the Amazon rainforest, the summit carries both symbolic and urgent meaning.
The Amazon, often called the lungs of the Earth, stands as the core of the global climate system and now, the stage for one of the most decisive moments in climate diplomacy. With the theme “Climate Action for People and Nature,” Brazil positions COP30 as a platform to restore fairness and accountability in the global response to climate change.
For many in the Global South, COP30 is more than a diplomatic event. It is a demand for justice. Countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America contribute the least to global emissions, yet face the greatest impacts of floods, droughts, and rising temperatures. In Belém, that imbalance will be at the heart of the debate.
The Science That Cannot Be Ignored
The scientific data leading up to COP30 paints an alarming picture. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that the planet is on track to warm by 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius this century, far beyond the 1.5°C limit agreed upon in the Paris Agreement.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with the probability of exceeding 1.5°C within a single calendar year now reaching more than 80 percent.
Meanwhile, the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report (2024) estimates that developing countries need around USD 300 billion annually to adapt to intensifying climate impacts. However, global climate finance remains stagnant, and in some areas, it is even declining. The conclusion is clear: the world is not on track to meet either mitigation or adaptation goals.
Key Debates in Belém
The negotiations in Belém will focus on bridging the widening gap between ambition and implementation. Countries are expected to revise and strengthen their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) following the first Global Stocktake, ensuring that national climate targets align with both science and justice.
The most contentious debate will center on a new global finance framework known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). Developing nations are calling for at least USD 600 to 800 billion per year to support both mitigation and adaptation. This demand stems from a deep trust deficit created by the unfulfilled promise of USD 100 billion annually in climate finance from developed countries.
Another pressing issue is the Loss and Damage Fund, which aims to support recovery in nations most affected by climate-induced disasters. Ensuring its operation and sufficient funding will be critical. In parallel, the Just Transition Work Programme seeks to guarantee that the shift toward clean energy benefits all communities and leaves no one behind.
Emerging Tensions and New Ideas
COP30 is also expected to highlight new and controversial issues. Concerns over carbon colonialism are growing, particularly among tropical forest nations that fear carbon markets could exploit indigenous lands and local communities.
The debate over Solar Radiation Modification (SRM), a proposed form of geoengineering to reflect sunlight and cool the planet, has also gained momentum, raising ethical and environmental concerns about its potential side effects.
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) reports that global economic losses from climate-related disasters have increased fivefold in the past two decades. This reality reinforces the call for resilience-focused investment, early warning systems, and regional cooperation to reduce systemic risks.
ASEAN and Indonesia’s Strategic Role
For Southeast Asia, COP30 represents both a challenge and an opportunity. The region is among the most climate-vulnerable in the world, yet also holds immense potential for renewable energy and green cooperation.
The ASEAN Power Grid Financing Initiative (APGF), backed by the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, has mobilized over USD 12 billion for cross-border clean energy projects. Singapore continues to lead in developing carbon trading systems with Thailand and Vietnam, while Cambodia has pledged to cut emissions by 55 percent by 2035.
Indonesia enters COP30 as both a major climate actor and a nation facing serious risks. Home to the world’s third-largest tropical forest area, Indonesia shares a global responsibility alongside Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to protect vital carbon sinks.
The summit in Belém provides an opportunity for Indonesia to strengthen its FOLU Net Sink 2030 commitment, secure financing for energy transition, and expand tropical forest diplomacy.
A Test of Global Justice
COP30 will be a turning point for the world’s climate ambitions and a test of whether global leaders can deliver on the principles of equity and science. It will determine if the world can build a climate system where those least responsible for emissions do not continue to bear the heaviest costs.
For ASEAN, Belém is not just about negotiation tables or funding pledges. It is a chance to shape a new narrative, one where climate action is rooted in justice, collaboration, and a shared vision for a sustainable future.
