In early January 2026, reports emerged suggesting that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has drafted a contingency plan to leave the country if mounting civil unrest continues to destabilize the regime.
According to multiple intelligence sources cited by international media, this plan could see Khamenei depart Tehran with a small group of close aides and family members, with Russia — especially Moscow — widely regarded as the most likely destination.
These claims come amid widespread protests and confrontations between demonstrators and security forces across many parts of Iran.
Why Iranians Are Protesting
Iran has been rocked by protests that have swiftly spread beyond initial economic grievances. What began in late December 2025 amid skyrocketing inflation and a collapsing currency has developed into broader anti-regime demonstrations in numerous cities.
Rights groups and monitoring organizations report dozens of protester fatalities and more than a thousand detentions as security forces crack down on crowds with tear gas, live ammunition, and water cannons.
Iran’s Human Rights Activists News Agency says at least 35 people have died and over 1,200 have been arrested, with demonstrators even chanting anti-leadership slogans that directly target the clerical establishment.
These protests reflect deepening public frustration with economic hardship as well as political discontent directed at the clerical leadership.
While the government attributes unrest to external interference, many Iranians see the crisis as rooted in chronic economic mismanagement, international sanctions, and political repression.
Details of the Reported Escape Plan
Intelligence sources cited in reports shared with Western media outlets describe a so-called “Plan B” for Khamenei.
Under this plan, the 86-year-old supreme leader would leave Tehran if it became evident that the Iranian army, Revolutionary Guard, or internal security forces were deserting their posts or refusing orders to suppress unrest.
The plan reportedly includes the departure of up to 20 people from Khamenei’s inner circle, including his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is often discussed as a potential successor.
According to one intelligence assessment, preparations for such a contingency have involved plotting exit routes from the capital and consolidating foreign assets, properties, and cash to facilitate a secure passage out of Iran.
The sources also mention that the planning draws parallels to the route taken by former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow in late 2024 as opposition forces closed in on Damascus.
Why Russia?
Russia is seen as the most plausible destination for Khamenei in the event of an exile, based on insights from former intelligence operatives and analysts.
According to the Iran Times, one such analyst noted that Moscow’s longstanding strategic cooperation with Tehran and its history of hosting allied leaders under pressure makes it a natural choice for asylum.
Beyond geopolitical ties, cultural and political affinities are also cited as factors that might influence such a decision.
Throughout recent years, Iran and Russia have strengthened their strategic partnership, which includes military cooperation and economic agreements.
This alignment, coupled with mutual opposition to Western influence in the Middle East, has created a backdrop in which Russia could be expected to extend support or refuge to Iran’s leadership should internal dynamics push them to seek sanctuary abroad.
Denials and Ongoing Ambiguity
Despite the widespread reporting, Iranian authorities have officially denied claims that Khamenei is preparing to flee the country.
A statement issued by the Iranian Embassy characterized the reports as “baseless propaganda” aimed at sowing discord and undermining confidence in Iran’s leadership during a period of heightened tension.
The embassy maintained that Khamenei remains in Iran and continues to guide state affairs. This official denial underscores the difficulty of verifying intelligence-based narratives amid a fast-moving situation.
In environments of heightened political sensitivity, both rumors and strategic misinformation can circulate rapidly, complicating efforts to discern the true intentions of key figures within the regime.
What the Future Holds for Iran and Iranians
Whether or not the reported contingency plan reflects genuine preparations on the part of the supreme leader, the very existence of such narratives sheds light on the degree of anxiety within Iran’s political elite about the stability of the state.
A leader feeling compelled to plan an escape route suggests serious concerns about the loyalty of security forces and the sustainability of governance structures under pressure.
The ongoing protests have already strained Iran’s domestic order and could have broader implications for regional geopolitics, particularly in the context of Iran’s relations with both Western powers and neighboring states.
If the unrest persists or escalates, it could reshape Tehran’s internal power dynamics and influence its foreign policy calculations long into the future.
