Imagine a container truck leaving the Port of Shenzhen. A few years ago, its most likely destination would have been Los Angeles or Rotterdam. Today, it is far more likely to be heading to Haiphong in Vietnam, Laem Chabang in Thailand, or Tanjung Priok in Jakarta.
And yes, that is exactly what has been happening throughout 2026.
According to official data from China's General Administration of Customs (GACC), China's exports to ASEAN countries rose by 22.9% in the first half of 2026. By contrast, its exports to the United States fell 11% during the same period, according to an ING Think report published on March 10, 2026. Two trade curves moving in opposite directions over the same timeframe.
Not a Temporary Trend
Since the beginning of 2026, China's approach toward its southern neighbors has undergone a clear shift. This is not a short-lived spike that will fade after a few months.
Total trade between China and ASEAN, including both exports and imports, reached 4.34 trillion yuan in the first six months of 2026, up 18.2% from a year earlier.
More notably, growth accelerated to 20.2% in the second quarter, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of expanding China-ASEAN trade. In other words, the upward trend has continued uninterrupted for two and a half years.
Behind these figures lies a story of increasingly integrated manufacturing networks. Most of the trade consists not of finished consumer goods, but of industrial components and raw materials, the building blocks of much larger production chains.
Trade in these intermediate goods surged 24.5% to 2.86 trillion yuan in the first half of 2026, accounting for nearly two-thirds of total China-ASEAN trade. In practice, this means factories in Guangzhou and factories in Batam or Bekasi are often working on the same product, just at different stages of production.
ASEAN Is Moving to the Front Row
If ASEAN were a classroom, Vietnam would be sitting in the front row, closest to the teacher's desk. According to GACC data, Vietnam imported US$72.4 billion worth of Chinese exports in the first four months of 2026, the highest among all ASEAN countries.
Thailand ranked next with US$41.2 billion, followed by Malaysia at US$40.4 billion and Indonesia at US$29.7 billion.
For comparison, during the same period, the European Union imported US$200.7 billion worth of Chinese goods, while the United States imported US$133.4 billion. Those figures are still larger, but the European Union is a bloc of dozens of countries, while the United States is a single economic giant.
What makes ASEAN stand out is its growth. Since 2023, China's total exports to ASEAN as a region have surpassed those to both the European Union and the United States. Around US$150 billion of those exports are estimated to be shipments that would previously have gone to the U.S. but were redirected because of trade tariff pressures.
Within ASEAN, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand were the region's fastest-growing export destinations in the first half of 2026, with each recording growth of more than 20%.
Chinese Cars Arrive, Then Comes Electricity
Another shift that often goes unnoticed is the growing presence of Chinese-made electric vehicles on Southeast Asian roads.
In May 2026 alone, China exported US$9.2 billion worth of electric vehicles worldwide, up 49% from a year earlier, equivalent to around 448,000 units, according to GACC data analyzed by energy think tank Ember.
ASEAN accounted for a record US$1.2 billion of those exports in a single month. Thailand led the region with more than 36,000 imported units, followed by the Philippines with over 33,000.
Cambodia also recorded a monthly record after cutting import tariffs on electric vehicles to 0%, while Laos briefly suspended imports of gasoline-powered cars, leading to another record surge in EV imports.
The momentum extends beyond vehicles. According to Caixin Global, China's combined exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels jumped 51.6% in the first half of 2026 to US$118.4 billion. In June 2026, monthly EV exports exceeded one million units for the first time.
Even electricity itself, which cannot be shipped in containers, is flowing more strongly across the region. China's electricity exports to ASEAN rose 42.9% in the first half of 2026, reaching 2.39 billion kilowatt-hours.
Myanmar recorded the fastest growth, with its electricity imports from China nearly doubling within just five months. The surge came amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which prompted several of China's neighboring countries to rely more heavily on electricity supplies from the north.
But the Story Isn't Over Yet
If the story ended here, it would sound almost too good to be true. And it isn't.
Behind China's surging exports to ASEAN lies a growing trade imbalance. According to the Lowy Institute, ASEAN's trade deficit with China exceeded US$180 billion in 2024, up sharply from around US$100 billion before the pandemic.
ASEAN's exports to China have remained largely flat at around US$290 billion since 2022, while imports from China have continued to rise.
The China-Global South Project estimates that China's trade surplus with ASEAN reached US$190.7 billion in 2024 and could increase to between US$271 billion and US$283 billion in 2025. Vietnam accounted for the largest surplus at around US$104 billion, followed by Thailand (US$51 billion), Singapore (US$50 billion), the Philippines (US$40 billion), Malaysia (US$8 billion), and Indonesia (US$7 billion).
Before concluding that this is entirely bad news, however, one important detail deserves attention. The Lowy Institute notes that around 60% of ASEAN's imports from China consist of industrial components and parts, another 30% are machinery and production equipment, and only 7% are consumer goods that directly compete with locally made products.
In other words, more than 90% of imports from China are used to support production and economic growth within Southeast Asia rather than simply replacing goods made in the region.
That is where the story stands. In 2026, which also marks the fifth year of the China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, the region is witnessing a new chapter in how supply chains are being reshaped and who supplies what to whom across Southeast Asia.
