In Timbulsloko, a fishing village on the northern coast of Central Java, Indonesia, there is a cemetery that has barely dried since 2020. Even when the sea is at low tide, water still covers the ground around the graves. Residents visiting the cemetery have to cross a makeshift bamboo bridge to reach it.
This is not a picture of the future. It is the reality today.
Timbulsloko is just one point in a long chain of coastal settlements across Southeast Asia that are slowly losing their land. Sea levels are rising because of climate change, but in many places, the problem is made far more complicated by the ground beneath these cities and villages sinking as well.
Here are some of the cities and coastal areas facing the most serious threats, ranked not by how well known they are, but by how quickly the land beneath them is disappearing.
Jakarta (Indonesia)
Jakarta is one of the cities with the fastest rates of land subsidence in the world. Research led by Dr. Heri Andreas of the Bandung Institute of Technology recorded subsidence of up to 15 centimeters per year in West Jakarta and around 10 centimeters in East Jakarta.
Along the North Jakarta coast, the ground has fallen by around 2.5 meters over the past decade and continues to sink by about 25 centimeters each year. Data compiled by Indonesia's National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) also shows that around 40 percent of Jakarta now lies below sea level.
The main cause is not a direct result of rising global temperatures, but groundwater extraction. Millions of households and buildings that are not connected to the city's piped water network still depend on groundwater.
As water is continuously pumped out of the ground, the soft sediments beneath Jakarta lose their support and gradually compact. The surface sinks with them, much like a squeezed sponge.
Semarang and Demak (Indonesia)
While Jakarta is still trying to prevent a larger crisis, parts of Central Java's northern coast are already experiencing its effects.
More than 8,000 hectares of land along Java's northern coast are now permanently submerged. At least 25 villages in Sayung, Karangtengah, Bonang, and Wedung districts have been affected by coastal erosion and tidal flooding, with some already abandoned by their residents.
In parts of Semarang and Demak, satellite radar measurements show that land subsidence can exceed one meter per decade. A study specifically focusing on Sayung recorded an average decline of around 6 centimeters per year.
Timbulsloko offers a close-up view of what that change looks like. Settlements that once stood on dry land are now surrounded by water, and some residents have moved to higher ground.
Metro Manila (Philippines)
Around Manila Bay, the problem goes beyond rising sea levels.
Satellite imagery analyzed using InSAR recorded maximum land subsidence of 109 millimeters per year across Metro Manila and its surrounding areas. In the provinces of Bulacan and Pampanga, north of the capital, the ground is sinking by around 4 to 6 centimeters per year, partly because of excessive groundwater extraction.
By comparison, global sea levels are rising at around 3 millimeters per year. The difference in speed makes land subsidence a critical factor. In some coastal areas around Manila Bay, tidal flooding, once more commonly associated with extreme weather, can now occur almost every day.
If the current rate of subsidence continues, some projections estimate that the ground in the area could sink cumulatively by as much as 0.785 meters by 2100 and 1.289 meters by 2150.
Bangkok (Thailand)
Bangkok once experienced land subsidence of up to 10 centimeters per year in the late 1970s. After the Thai government tightened regulations on groundwater extraction, the rate was reduced to less than 1 centimeter per year.
The city's location, however, continues to make it vulnerable. Bangkok sits at an average elevation of only about 1.5 meters above sea level and lies at the southern end of the Chao Phraya River basin.
Recent projections estimate that around 40 percent of Bangkok could be at risk of inundation with a 15-centimeter rise in sea levels and extreme rainfall by 2030. With an 88-centimeter rise by 2080, the area at risk could reach 70 percent.
The World Bank also estimates that Bangkok's flood risk could increase fourfold by 2050 compared with today.
Ho Chi Minh City and the Mekong Delta (Vietnam)
In southern Vietnam, the threat comes from two directions. Since 1990, Ho Chi Minh City has experienced land subsidence of around 2 to 5 centimeters per year. The city's eastern outskirts along the Saigon River recorded rates as high as 70 millimeters per year between 2006 and 2010.
Beyond the city, the Mekong Delta faces a broader problem. One of Vietnam's most important agricultural regions, the delta has subsided by an average of around 18 centimeters between 1991 and 2015.
One widely cited scenario comes from Climate Central in 2019. If sea levels rise by one meter, around 18 percent of Ho Chi Minh City and 39 percent of the Mekong Delta could be inundated. Much of southern Vietnam could also be below the level of high tide by 2050.
Groundwater extraction is not the only cause. Dams along the upper Mekong have reduced the amount of sediment reaching the delta, even though this material helps maintain and naturally build the land.
Yangon and the Ayeyarwady Delta (Myanmar)
In Myanmar, the threat is harder to measure. Yangon, home to more than 5 million people, faces a regional sea-level rise of 20 to 41 centimeters by the middle of the century, while parts of the city's northeastern area are sinking by up to 2 centimeters per year.
The risk increases when tidal surges coincide with the rainy season between May and August. In the Ayeyarwady Delta, research estimates that around 30 percent of the delta could fall below the threshold associated with a one-meter rise in sea level, putting around 12.5 million people at risk.
Yet these figures come with considerable uncertainty. Myanmar has relatively limited elevation data, so many projections rely on global satellite models that are less precise than those available for Jakarta or Manila.
When Land Sinks Faster Than Seas Rise
These six cases reveal a common pattern. Rising sea levels are an expanding threat, but in many coastal cities across Southeast Asia, the land is sinking much faster. The decline is largely linked to human activity, including excessive groundwater extraction.
Global sea levels are rising by around 3 to 4 millimeters per year. In some of the areas discussed above, the ground can sink by several centimeters, or even tens of centimeters, over the same period.
Bangkok offers one important clue. When groundwater extraction was more tightly regulated, the rate of land subsidence fell dramatically.
That means part of this crisis is not simply an unavoidable consequence of climate change. It is also shaped by how cities manage water, develop settlements, and use their land.
