Ben Churchill, the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific, described the haze crisis caused by forest and land fires in Indonesia as potentially one of the worst transboundary haze episodes in Southeast Asia, possibly the worst on record. The crisis has affected Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, and other countries.
In an interview with The Straits Times on October 16, 2026, Churchill warned that the crisis could last for weeks or even months.
The scale of the crisis is reflected in data from Copernicus Fire Emissions Watch. About half of the wildfire smoke emissions monitored globally over the seven days from October 8 came from Indonesia.
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) also recorded intense seasonal fires emerging in late July and early August, particularly in West and Central Kalimantan. Indonesia’s estimated fire emissions in August were the highest for that month since at least 2003.
Fires Spread as Rainfall Remains Uncertain
The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) detected more than 15,000 hotspots across Kalimantan and Sumatra between January 1 and August 27, 2026. Of these, 12,212, or 78%, were in Kalimantan. On August 26, ASMC raised its transboundary haze alert to Level 3, the highest level.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Ministry of Forestry recorded 107,465 hectares of burned land between January and June, with West Kalimantan accounting for the largest area at 28,680 hectares. The Ministry of Health also recorded around 50,000 cases of respiratory tract infections linked to the fires between July and August.
The El Niño phenomenon, coinciding with the dry season, has worsened conditions. Peatland fires are particularly difficult to extinguish because they can continue smoldering beneath the ground.
The situation recalls the 2015 fires, when approximately 2.6 million hectares of land burned in Indonesia between June and October. The World Bank estimated the resulting economic losses at at least US$16.1 billion, equivalent to 1.9% of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) that year.
The scale of this year’s fires does not necessarily mean the crisis has reached the same magnitude as the 2015 disaster. However, record-high August emissions and the spread of haze show that the problem extends beyond the area burned.
As long as peatland fires remain active and sustained rainfall remains uncertain, the risk of transboundary haze will continue to threaten the region.
A Cross-Border Crisis Requires a Regional Response
Indonesia has deployed around 60,000 personnel and 47 aircraft to tackle the fires.
Japan also sent three CH-47 Chinook helicopters to Kalimantan from September 16 to 29. During more than 40 aerial firefighting operations, the helicopters dropped approximately 220 tonnes of water.
However, the mission ended after Indonesia indicated that it could continue the response independently. The National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) stressed that the end of Japan’s mission did not mean the fires had been extinguished, particularly in peatland areas.
On October 15, Indonesian Foreign Minister Arrmanatha Nasir said President Prabowo Subianto had accepted offers of assistance from neighboring countries. Malaysia offered to send aircraft, helicopters, and around 50 firefighting personnel, while Singapore offered assistance with civil firefighting operations and cloud seeding.
Amid these developments, Churchill proposed that ASEAN member states pool their resources and share firefighting equipment. Such cooperation is important because haze from Indonesia’s fires crosses national borders, while prolonged fires, as seen in 2015, have caused at least US$16.1 billion in economic losses in Indonesia alone.
For ASEAN, stronger regional coordination is essential to enable a faster response before the fires’ impacts spread further across neighboring countries.
