After more than two decades of negotiations, China and ASEAN member states have provisionally agreed on around 80% of the paragraphs in the draft Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea. However, this progress has yet to bring the parties close to finalising an agreement intended to guide their conduct and help manage tensions in the disputed waters.
Three senior Southeast Asian diplomats familiar with the negotiations told the Associated Press about the 80% figure following the latest round of talks in October 2026. They also revealed that the negotiations would not be completed in 2026 as previously promised.
Talks are expected to continue into 2027, when ASEAN's chairmanship passes from the Philippines to Singapore. As of 11 November 2026, however, the 80% figure remains a claim by anonymous diplomats rather than an official figure confirmed by ASEAN or China. The Associated Press has also not explained how the figure was calculated.
Three Issues Still Holding Up the Agreement
According to the diplomats, three major issues remain unresolved: the geographical scope of the COC, the definition of several sensitive terms, and whether the agreement will be legally binding.
These issues have been under discussion for years. In a May 2025 analysis for ISEAS Perspective, Joanne Lin and Pou Sothirak noted that several key provisions in the draft remained in brackets. In diplomatic negotiations, brackets indicate that the parties have yet to reach an agreement.
The outstanding matters include the geographical areas covered by the COC, its relationship with the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC), and the definitions of terms such as "disputed feature", "incident", and "self-restraint".
The COC's legal status is another point of contention. Philstar reported in 2026 that observers believed Beijing had repeatedly rejected proposals for a legally binding and enforceable agreement. China was instead seen as favouring a more flexible political framework without enforcement mechanisms or penalties.
Lin and Sothirak also highlighted Beijing's preference for a flexible, non-binding political document in their analysis. Meanwhile, China's official position was outlined by Foreign Minister Wang Yi during a meeting with Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan in Manila on 21 July 2026. According to Xinhua, China supports concluding the COC consultations as soon as possible based on the 2002 Declaration.
Negotiations gained momentum under the Philippines' ASEAN chairmanship in 2026. Meetings were held at least once a month, while China and Malaysia, which coordinates ASEAN's relations with Beijing, led at least 10 major rounds of talks throughout the year.
From the 2002 Declaration to the Third Reading
The process began with the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, signed by ASEAN and China in Phnom Penh on 4 November 2002.
The declaration is not legally binding. However, it commits the parties to resolving disputes peacefully, without threats or the use of force. They also agreed to exercise self-restraint in activities that could complicate or escalate tensions in the region.
Paragraph 10 specifically states that the parties will work towards adopting a Code of Conduct based on consensus. However, the exact starting point of the COC negotiations remains unclear, as sources have placed the beginning of the process at different points between 2003 and 2013.
Another significant development came on 12 July 2016, when an arbitral tribunal established under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) issued its ruling on the Philippines' case against China. The five-member tribunal reached a unanimous decision.
China did not participate in the arbitration proceedings. Beijing also rejected the outcome, declaring the ruling null and void and without binding force.
Meanwhile, negotiations over the COC draft continued. The single draft negotiating text completed its first reading in 2019 and its second in 2023.. That same year, ASEAN and China agreed to accelerate negotiations and aim to conclude the agreement by 2026.
In July 2025, ASEAN foreign ministers welcomed the completion of the third and final reading of the single draft negotiating text in their joint communiqué in Kuala Lumpur. They also expressed their expectation for an effective and substantive COC consistent with international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS.
However, completing the third and final reading did not mean that every provision had been agreed upon. Several bracketed issues remained open for discussion. Lin and Sothirak had even warned in May 2025 that the 2026 deadline was becoming increasingly unrealistic.
The Countries and Interests Behind the Dispute
The South China Sea dispute involves China and several Southeast Asian countries: Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Taiwan also has claims in the region.
The dispute has drawn the attention of the United States as well. Washington has stated that it is obligated to defend the Philippines if its armed forces come under an armed attack. Beijing, meanwhile, has urged the United States to stay out of what it describes as a purely Asian dispute.
The COC negotiations are also unfolding ahead of the 49th ASEAN Summit, scheduled to take place in Manila on 15–18 November 2026. Meetings with dialogue partners are set for 16–17 November.
As of 11 November, Chinese President Xi Jinping was not expected to attend, while Premier Li Qiang's attendance had yet to be confirmed.
Amid these diplomatic efforts, the COC is widely viewed as a mechanism for managing tensions rather than resolving the underlying territorial disputes. Joseph Kristanto of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies described it as a tool to manage friction, not to change the fundamental dynamics of the dispute.
A similar view came from Manila-based geopolitical analyst Julio Amador III, who said that a code of conduct alone might not be enough to prevent aggressive actions in the region.
The challenge, therefore, extends beyond agreeing on the remaining paragraphs of the draft. ASEAN and China must also determine how far the rules can go in shaping the parties' conduct when tensions in the South China Sea rise again.
