In the ever-shifting landscape of international diplomacy, Southeast Asia remains a critical arena of global influence. As ASEAN nations continue to balance economic growth with geopolitical strategy, the question of “who matters most” as a partner is constantly evolving.
The State of Southeast Asia: 2025 Survey Report by ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute offers a fresh look at how ASEAN views its strategic dialogue partners today. Based on insights from policy, academic, and business communities across the region, the rankings reflect more than just trade and defense — they reveal trust, perceived reliability, and long-term regional impact.
China and the U.S. Lead — But It’s Neck and Neck
At the top of the list, China narrowly claims the title of ASEAN’s most strategically relevant partner with a score of 8.80 out of 11. Close behind is the United States, at 8.76, showing how the two superpowers remain in a tight race for influence in the region.
China ranks first in six ASEAN countries — Brunei, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand — underscoring its deep economic integration, especially through trade and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments. Meanwhile, the U.S. holds the top spot in Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam, with Cambodia’s pivot especially notable as it hints at a shift away from Beijing’s shadow.
Japan Holds Strong as a Trusted Partner
Japan remains a consistent third with a score of 7.53, appreciated for its long-standing engagement in infrastructure, aid, and economic development. It maintains high regard particularly in Brunei and the Philippines, where it is also seen as a rising maritime security partner amid ongoing tensions in regional waters.
Japan’s reputation as a reliable and non-threatening partner makes it a unique pillar in ASEAN’s strategic landscape.
The EU, Australia, and India Gain Relevance
Coming in fourth, the European Union (6.35) is viewed as a steady economic force, with strong investment and regulatory partnerships. Its relevance is especially heightened in Vietnam, thanks to the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement.
Australia climbs to fifth, boosted by active diplomacy around the 50th ASEAN-Australia Dialogue Partnership and increased security collaboration with countries like Malaysia and Singapore. India, rising from ninth to sixth, benefits from its growing Quad presence and more robust regional outreach. Notably, it gained significant ground in Brunei, Laos, and Myanmar.
Declines for South Korea, the U.K., and Russia
Despite strong commercial ties, South Korea and the United Kingdom each drop two spots, with Korea’s influence overshadowed by more assertive partners like Japan and India. The UK, post-Brexit, appears to be struggling to convert its Indo-Pacific strategy into sustained engagement.
Russia also continues to fall, now behind the UK at 4.93, reflecting limited presence in ASEAN affairs and global geopolitical headwinds.
A Region in Strategic Motion
The results make one thing clear: ASEAN’s strategic preferences are shifting, and fast. While major players like China and the U.S. continue to dominate, emerging and middle powers are reshaping the diplomatic balance.
For ASEAN, navigating this multipolar world means constantly recalibrating relationships. And for outside partners, the message is simple — show up, invest deeply, and prove your long-term value.
