A recent survey conducted by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute asked Southeast Asian policymakers, academics, and analysts a strategic question: if the region were compelled to choose between the world’s two dominant powers, would it align with China or the United States, a scenario that highlights the growing geopolitical tension shaping the Indo-Pacific and the difficult choices facing countries that simultaneously depend on China for trade and investment while maintaining security partnerships with Washington.
The findings reveal that several Southeast Asian states show a strong inclination toward Beijing in this hypothetical alignment, with Indonesia recording the highest preference at 72% and Malaysia closely following at 71%, reflecting how China’s expanding role in regional infrastructure development, trade connectivity, and investment flows has significantly deepened its economic footprint across both maritime and mainland Southeast Asia.
Other countries that also leaned toward China include Thailand, Brunei Darussalam, and Laos, where a slight majority of respondents indicated preference for Beijing, a trend often linked to China’s growing presence in strategic sectors such as energy, logistics corridors, and large-scale infrastructure projects connected to initiatives like the Belt and Road.
In contrast, several Southeast Asian nations demonstrated stronger support for alignment with the United States, with the Philippines showing the highest preference at 86%, followed by Viet Nam at 73% and Myanmar at 58%, reflecting longstanding defense ties, historical partnerships, and security cooperation frameworks that continue to shape strategic thinking among regional policy elites.
Overall, the survey underscores the delicate diplomatic balancing act that defines Southeast Asia’s geopolitical posture today, as countries in the region seek to navigate intensifying rivalry between China and the United States while safeguarding economic growth, regional stability, and strategic autonomy in an increasingly polarized global order.
