BMI (Fitch Solutions), the research arm of Fitch Solutions under Fitch Group, projects that after 2030 much of Asia-Pacific’s LNG production growth will depend on Indonesia. The outlook hinges on the country’s ability to revitalize mature gas fields and accelerate new exploration.
Over the next decade, BMI estimates regional LNG output will grow by about 104 billion cubic meters (bcm). However, Asia-Pacific will face strong competition from expanding LNG capacity in the Americas, the Middle East, and Africa.
One major factor behind this outlook is a gas discovery by Eni at the Konta-1 exploration well in Block Muara Bakau, located in the Kutai Basin about 50 km off the coast of East Kalimantan. The discovery is estimated to hold around 600 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas, with potential to exceed 1 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas initially in place.
Meanwhile, SKK Migas has approved the Final Investment Decision (FID) for the Geng North and Gendalo–Gendang projects. The Geng North field alone is estimated to contain about 5 tcf of gas and 400 million barrels of condensate. Eni and Petronas are also preparing to complete their 50:50 joint venture company, NewCo, by 2026, supported by more than $15 billion in investment over five years.
BMI estimates these developments in East Kalimantan could produce around 2 bcf of gas per day and 80,000 barrels of condensate per day. The projects will also leverage existing infrastructure such as the Bontang LNG refinery. If realized, they could strengthen Indonesia’s position as a future LNG hub in Southeast Asia, with additional resource potential of up to 40 bcm by 2030.
