The State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey, conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, shows that the region remains deeply unsettled. Key concerns include intensifying major power rivalry, economic uncertainty, and rising geopolitical tensions.
Donald Trump’s leadership was ranked as the top geopolitical concern across ASEAN. It was cited by 51.9% of respondents, rising from third place the previous year. This was followed closely by global scam operations at 51.4% and tensions in the South China Sea at 48.2%.
Singapore recorded the highest level of concern over U.S. leadership. A total of 76.8% of its respondents identified it as a major issue. This reflects the country’s strong trade dependence on the United States and its direct exposure to U.S. tariff policies.
Joanne Lin, Senior Fellow and Coordinator at the ASEAN Studies Centre, noted that Southeast Asia feels uneasy about both major powers, though in different ways. She added that maintaining strategic balance is becoming increasingly difficult, as the region seeks to avoid fully aligning with either side.
The survey gathered responses from 2,008 participants across academia, business, government, and civil society in 11 ASEAN countries. It found that 52% of respondents would now choose China as their preferred strategic partner if forced to decide. This marks a reversal from the previous year, when the United States held a narrow lead of 52.3%.
