Viet Nam is poised to overtake Thailand in economic size measured by nominal GDP as soon as 2026, driven by an ambitious state-led infrastructure investment push that propelled the country to an impressive 8.02% real GDP growth in 2025—among the fastest globally—with its nominal GDP reaching approximately $514 billion, surpassing earlier forecasts.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has set an ambitious target of over 10% growth for 2026 and subsequent years, with Can Van Luc, Chief Economist at the state-owned Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV), noting that public investment plans for 2026 are expected to increase by about 26%, potentially lifting economic growth by 1.6 percentage points through major projects including a new airport near Ho Chi Minh City and China-backed rail infrastructure.
If Viet Nam's accelerated growth trajectory continues as planned, its nominal GDP could reach the mid-$500 billion range by 2026 or 2027, positioning it to become Southeast Asia's third-largest economy after Indonesia and the Philippines, with GDP per capita rising above $5,000 and approaching Indonesia's level, according to projections from the UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
In stark contrast, Thailand faces significant economic headwinds as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts only 1.5% real GDP growth for 2026—down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year—weighed down by high household debt, slow tourism recovery, U.S. import tariffs, domestic political uncertainty, and intensified border tensions with Cambodia that erupted into heavy fighting in December 2025.
CEBR's World Economic League Table projects that by 2035, Viet Nam will surpass both Thailand and Singapore in total GDP, ranking 27th globally with a forecasted GDP of $994 billion, while Singapore and Thailand are expected to hold 32nd and 33rd positions respectively, marking a significant shift in Southeast Asia's economic landscape as Viet Nam ascends from its current fifth place in the region.
