Vietnam's economy is experiencing robust growth, outpacing the economic trajectory of many regional and global peers. Projections indicate that Vietnam is on track to achieve upper-middle income status by 2025 and is expected to surpass Singapore's economic output by 2029.
According to a report by the UK-based Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), Vietnam's GDP is expected to reach $450 billion in 2024, ranking 34th in the world. With an average annual growth rate of 5.8% over the next five years, Vietnam's GDP is expected to surpass Singapore's by 2029, reaching $676 billion compared to Singapore's $656 billion.
Vietnam's economic outlook remains promising, with an average growth rate of 5.6% per year projected for 2030-2039. By 2039, Vietnam's GDP is expected to reach $1.41 trillion, solidifying its role as a major player in the global economy.
Projected Economic Giant
This trajectory positions Vietnam to become the 25th largest economy in the world and the third largest in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia and the Philippines, reflecting its resilience and adaptability in overcoming global challenges.
According to the CEBR, Vietnam's growth will outpace Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore, solidifying its position as one of the strongest economies in ASEAN. Global GDP is projected to grow from $110 trillion in 2024 to $221 trillion in 2039, with Vietnam continuing to show exceptional growth.
Although Vietnam's GDP per capita remains below that of Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, it is expected to surpass Indonesia and the Philippines by 2026, reaching $6,140 per capita according to the IMF, further strengthening its position within the ASEAN-6.
Journey to Upper-Middle Income
Vietnam is projected to surpass the upper-middle-income threshold in 2024, with a GDP per capita of $4,469. This figure is expected to rise to $4,783 in 2025, officially placing the country in the upper-middle-income category ($4,466–$13,845).
Vietnam’s per capita income continues to grow, with projections reaching $6,463 by 2029 (117th globally) and $12,727 by 2039 (100th globally). While still relatively modest compared to other Southeast Asian nations, Vietnam is making steady progress, ranking sixth in ASEAN for GDP per capita in 2024, behind Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.
Vietnam's Tech Boom Fuels Economic Rise
Vietnam is strategically positioned to accelerate its economic growth through technological advancements. Its strong post-pandemic recovery has been driven by openness to trade, numerous international agreements, and its role in the global supply chain.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a critical role, with inflows projected to reach $40 billion in 2024, placing Vietnam among the top 15 developing countries.
Several global tech giants have made significant investments, including Nvidia, which has established an AI research center; Google, which has expanded its operations; and Foxconn, which has allocated $80 million for chip production. Meta and SpaceX have also committed substantial investments of $1.5 billion each.
This influx of technology-driven investment strengthens Vietnam’s global competitiveness, accelerating its journey toward achieving upper-middle-income status.
