The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, is one of the most strategically vital maritime chokepoints in the world.
Approximately one-fifth of the world's oil passes through it daily, making it an economic artery not just for the Gulf region, but for global markets.
During the recent conflict, Iran threatened to close this critical strait and expert believe this could raise the price of oil around the world.
But over the years, Iran has repeatedly threatened to shut down the strait in response to Western sanctions and military pressures. Despite the strong rhetoric, Iran has never followed through.
This reluctance is rooted in strategic, economic, and geopolitical realities that make the actual closure of the Strait highly improbable.
Rhetorical Threats
Iranian officials have used the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz as a political tool since at least the 1980s.
Whenever tensions escalate, whether due to sanctions, the targeting of Iranian oil exports, or increased military presence in the region, Iran often resorts to hardline statements.
For instance, during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and again during the height of U.S. sanctions in the 2000s and 2010s, Iranian leaders declared they would block the Strait if Iran’s oil could not be exported.
Yet, despite these threats, maritime traffic has continued largely uninterrupted. Iran has never taken concrete steps to impose a full blockade, nor has it openly engaged in sustained operations to disrupt commercial oil shipping in the strait.
Even in 2019, when tensions with the United States reached a peak following the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, Iran stopped short of targeting the strait itself, opting instead for limited, symbolic military actions elsewhere in the region.
Economic Suicide
One of the most significant reasons Iran is unlikely to close the Strait of Hormuz is that it would harm its own economy. Iran is heavily dependent on oil exports for its revenue, and a closure of the strait would also block Iranian ships from reaching international markets.
While Iran has tried to develop alternative routes, such as the pipeline to the port of Jask south of the Strait, these infrastructures remain limited in capacity compared to the volume that moves through Hormuz.
Furthermore, Iran’s fragile economy under constant pressure from sanctions, cannot afford further self-inflicted damage. Closing the strait would likely provoke a sharp response from the international community, leading to even harsher sanctions and potential military retaliation.
Given the high cost to its own economy and stability, Iran’s leadership has consistently walked back from actually carrying out the threat.
Regional and International Backlash
Another critical factor is the potential backlash from the international community. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would not just affect Western nations, but also impact Asian economies such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which are major importers of Gulf oil.
Alienating these countries would isolate Iran further and potentially disrupt the few diplomatic and economic relationships it has left.
Moreover, Iran would risk provoking regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who are also reliant on Hormuz for their oil exports.
These countries, often at odds with Iran geopolitically, would likely lobby for a swift international response, including potential military intervention.
The United States maintains a significant naval presence in the region specifically to keep the waterway open, and any serious attempt to close the strait could trigger a direct conflict, something Iran seems keen to avoid.
Iran Is Simply Not Powerful Enough
While Iran has invested heavily in asymmetric warfare and developed naval capabilities specifically tailored to disrupt maritime traffic, such as fast attack boats, mines, and anti-ship missiles, it still faces a significant military imbalance.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet and its allies routinely patrol the area, and any attempt by Iran to militarily block the Strait of Hormuz would likely be met with overwhelming force.
Iranian military leaders understand that they can harass or delay shipments, but sustaining a complete closure would require constant and large-scale military engagement that Iran is unlikely to win.
This recognition of its limitations is another reason why threats to close the strait remain just empty threats.
