Jakarta is slowly sinking. This is no metaphor, nor a myth of some modern Atlantis.
Indonesia’s largest metropolis is literally sinking into the ground, at a rate of up to 26 millimeters per year. In the north, the pace is even more alarming: about 28 centimeters annually.
As a result, 40% of Jakarta now sits below sea level. If nothing changes, a quarter of the city could be underwater before 2050.
Imagine a megacity, home to more than 10.5 million people, boasting the world’s highest number of shopping malls and skyscrapers rivaling Hong Kong—gradually turning into a “giant basin.” And the threat doesn’t come only from the sea, but also from rivers and torrential rain.
The Sinking Economic Engine: A City on the Brink
The stakes are even higher when we remember that Jakarta is not just the political capital—it is the nation’s economic heart. According to Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS, 2023), trade, transport, and logistics account for 20–25% of the city’s economy. Business services add another 15–20%, finance 10–15%, while manufacturing and construction each contribute around 10%.
Jakarta is also home to one of the fastest-growing information technology sectors in the Asia-Pacific region. Regional research services estimate that by 2050, the city’s economy could triple, with the metropolitan area housing over 40 million people.
In short, the more advanced its economy becomes, the heavier the burden on the very ground beneath it.
Water, Water, Everywhere
Why is Jakarta sinking so fast? The answer is simple: groundwater depletion.
Only about a quarter of households in the capital are connected to a formal piped water network. The rest rely on private wells, drawing relentlessly from underground aquifers. Over time, this extraction removes the natural “support” in the soil, causing the land to sink.
Ironically, the heavy rains that could replenish the aquifers rarely seep back into the ground. Instead, the city’s vast sprawl of concrete and asphalt channels the water into streets and drains, worsening floods while leaving underground reserves dry.
Three Enemies at Once
Jakarta is caught in a three-front battle:
- Extreme rainfall – like on New Year’s Day 2020, when daily rainfall hit 377 mm, one of the heaviest in the city’s history. Even throughout 2025, the capital has already been repeatedly besieged by floods.
- Overflowing rivers – 13 rivers flow from the southern highlands and empty into Jakarta Bay, carrying huge volumes of water.
- The rising sea – climbing at just 3–4 mm a year, but still dangerous when the land itself is sinking dozens of times faster.
To make matters worse, mangrove forests that once protected the coastline have long been cleared, while colonial-era canals now trap sediment, accelerating subsidence.
Moving to Nusantara: Running Away from the Problem?
Faced with this urgency, the government has made a bold decision: moving the capital to Nusantara Capital City (IKN) in East Kalimantan, 1,000 kilometers from Jakarta.
But is this really the solution? Experts warn that relocating the seat of government will not automatically save Jakarta. The city will remain the country’s economic powerhouse. Even Kalimantan itself is no paradise, its extreme rainfall and flood risks pose new challenges.
Jakarta Is Not Alone
Jakarta’s plight is far from unique. A 2022 study from Nanyang Technological University found that other Asian cities, such as Ho Chi Minh City, Yangon, and Chittagong are also sinking.
Closer to home, research published in Prehospital and Disaster Medicine (2023) cautioned that Semarang faces a similar fate, with land subsidence reaching up to 20 cm per year.
Can It Be Saved?
Solutions do exist. Limiting groundwater extraction, building a modern clean-water network, expanding green space (Jakarta once targeted 30% but now only has about 6.4%), and constructing a giant sea wall are among the urgent measures. Restoring mangroves and adopting more adaptive urban planning are also critical.
But time is running out. Without decisive action, Jakarta—already the city with the world’s most shopping malls and ranking 12th globally for skyscrapers—could become the first major capital to literally disappear beneath the sea.
