Southeast Asia is expected to face a period of hotter and drier weather as the likelihood of an El Niño event forming in the Pacific Ocean continues to increase.
Scientists have even warned that this event could potentially develop into a “Super El Niño,” a rare phenomenon capable of triggering extreme weather disruptions in many parts of the world.
For Southeast Asia, the impacts could be particularly significant. The region is considered one of the areas most vulnerable to El Niño, especially in the form of prolonged droughts, reduced rainfall, and rising temperatures.
The Potential Strengthening of El Niño
Meteorologists are closely monitoring changes in sea surface temperatures and wind patterns across the Pacific that indicate the development of El Niño.
The phenomenon is classified as a “Super El Niño” when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above the normal average, an event that typically occurs only once every 10 to 15 years.
Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm water toward the western Pacific. However, when El Niño develops, these winds weaken or even reverse direction, allowing warm water to move eastward toward the coast of South America.
This year, strong bursts of westerly winds have pushed large masses of warm water into the eastern Pacific, a development that could intensify the phenomenon.
These conditions are also linked to heat that was previously stored in the ocean during the La Niña phase. Tom Di Liberto, a former meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States, explained that the large amount of heat trapped beneath the ocean surface during La Niña can be rapidly released into the atmosphere once El Niño begins to form.
Drought Risks in Southeast Asia
El Niño typically brings lower rainfall to Southeast Asia and Australia. These conditions can trigger prolonged droughts that directly affect agriculture and food security.
Countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Papua New Guinea have previously experienced severe damage during past El Niño events. In addition to reducing food production, prolonged dry conditions also increase the risk of large-scale forest fires.
Meanwhile, some regions experience the opposite effect. Countries such as Peru and Ecuador are expected to face significantly higher-than-normal rainfall, while parts of the southern United States may also see increased precipitation during the winter season.
Global Warming Intensifies El Niño’s Impact
Scientists also emphasize that human-driven climate change may amplify the impacts of El Niño. The accumulation of greenhouse gases makes it increasingly difficult for the Earth’s climate system to release the excess heat generated during such events.
As a result, each El Niño episode has the potential to push global average temperatures to higher levels than before. Some scientists even estimate that the 2026–2027 El Niño could release more heat than major past events, such as those in 1997–1998 and 2015–2016.
Predictions May Still Change, but the World Is Urged to Prepare
Although many indicators point to the possible development of El Niño, experts stress that climate predictions still carry uncertainties, particularly due to a phenomenon known as the “spring prediction barrier.”
Even when models show strong signals of El Niño, forecasts early in the year can be less reliable because this barrier often reduces prediction accuracy.
Michelle L’Heureux, NOAA’s lead forecaster, noted that in 2014 climate models once predicted a major El Niño that ultimately did not occur after westerly wind bursts suddenly weakened.
Nevertheless, early warnings remain crucial in helping governments prepare mitigation strategies.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water management,” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
With the probability of El Niño increasing in the coming months, Southeast Asian countries are now urged to strengthen preparedness, particularly in water management, agriculture, and disaster mitigation.
