Indonesia is projected to face an extreme climate phenomenon in 2026, referred to as the “Godzilla” El Niño. This warning was issued by the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) through its official Instagram account, @brin_indonesia.
The phenomenon is expected to significantly prolong the dry season while creating contrasting weather patterns across different regions of Indonesia.
What Is the “Godzilla” El Niño and Why Is It Dangerous?
El Niño is a phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. As a result, cloud formation and rainfall over Indonesia decrease sharply, leading to a longer and drier dry season.
In extreme conditions, the intensity of El Niño can increase significantly, earning it the nickname “Godzilla.”
“El Niño is a phenomenon of warming sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon, including the potential for a strong ‘Godzilla’ variation, causes the dry season in Indonesia to become longer and drier,” BRIN explained in its Instagram post on March 21.
The situation becomes more serious when it coincides with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a condition in which sea temperatures around Sumatra and Java actually cool down. This further suppresses cloud formation and leads to an even greater reduction in rainfall.
This combined phenomenon is predicted to occur from April to October 2026, aligning with Indonesia’s dry season. During this period, rainfall activity is expected to shift toward the Pacific Ocean, leaving much of Indonesia with reduced precipitation.
Uneven Impacts: Drought, Flooding, and Forest Fires
Although often associated with drought, the impacts of the “Godzilla” El Niño will not be uniform across Indonesia. According to BRIN’s predictive models, southern regions such as Java and East Nusa Tenggara are likely to experience dry conditions earlier.
This poses a serious threat to agriculture, particularly in key rice-producing areas such as the northern coast of Java. As noted in the same post, “This phenomenon has the potential to trigger drought, affecting various sectors, including agriculture and water resources.”
In contrast, northeastern regions such as Sulawesi, Halmahera, and Maluku may experience higher rainfall, increasing the risk of floods and landslides despite the dry season.
Meanwhile, Sumatra and Kalimantan face heightened risks of forest and land fires (karhutla), especially in areas affected by drought. Interestingly, northern parts of these islands may still receive relatively high rainfall.
A similar pattern occurred in 2023, demonstrating that the combination of El Niño and a positive IOD can produce complex and uneven climate impacts.
Threats and Opportunities Amid the Climate Crisis
BRIN emphasizes the need for region-specific mitigation strategies. Drought in southern Indonesia could disrupt national food production, while eastern regions must prepare for hydrometeorological disasters.
However, there are also potential opportunities. The prolonged dry season in southern regions could support increased national salt production, potentially helping Indonesia achieve its salt self-sufficiency target for 2026–2027.
Given the varied impacts, government preparedness will be crucial. The combination of extreme drought, flood risks, and forest fires requires adaptive, region-based approaches to effectively minimize the overall impact.
