Several of the world’s leading climate institutions have warned that the developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific has the potential to become the strongest ever recorded in modern history.
If these projections prove accurate, 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded, while the Asia-Pacific region prepares for prolonged droughts, crop failures, and hydrometeorological disasters on a scale not seen in decades.
What Is a Super El Niño and Why Is It Different?
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years, when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific warm significantly enough to disrupt wind patterns and weather systems around the world.
Its intensity is measured using the Niño3.4 index, which compares sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific against their historical average.
An El Niño is classified as “very strong” or a super El Niño when the index exceeds 2°C above average. The strongest event ever recorded reached 2.7°C in 1877.
The last super El Niño occurred in 2015–2016, when the Niño3.4 index peaked at 2.4°C. Even the 2023–2024 El Niño, which did not reach super El Niño status, was enough to push 2024 into the hottest year in recorded history.
What is unfolding now, however, goes far beyond a typical cycle. In its May 1 report, ECMWF projected that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise to 3°C above average by November, surpassing the previous record set in 1877.
How Likely Is This to Happen?
In a report released on May 14, NOAA stated that there is an 82% chance El Niño will develop between May and July, with a 96% probability that it will persist through the end of the year. Furthermore, there is a 65% chance that this El Niño will strengthen into a strong or very strong category starting in October.
Scientists still acknowledge uncertainty regarding how intense the event’s peak will ultimately become. However, what has made the global climate community far more alarmed than usual is the speed of its formation.
The transition from the cooler La Niña phase to El Niño has occurred much faster than the historical average, driven by massive heat reserves that had accumulated in the deeper layers of the central and eastern Pacific and are now beginning to rise to the surface.
Asia-Pacific Faces the Greatest Impact
Whenever a strong El Niño develops, the Asia-Pacific region is always among the hardest hit. NOAA has consistently observed the same pattern: reduced monsoon rainfall across India and Southeast Asia, extreme droughts in Australia and Indonesia, and a sharp increase in transboundary forest fires.
All of these ultimately lead to the issue felt most directly by the public: a food crisis. Agricultural production declines in regions that depend heavily on seasonal rainfall, food prices surge, and low-income countries bear the heaviest burden.
Historical records provide a picture of the worst-case scenario. The 1877 El Niño, which lasted for around 18 months, triggered severe droughts and mass famine across Asia, Brazil, and Africa, while also causing extreme flooding in other regions such as Peru.
Scientists warn that if the current developing El Niño truly surpasses the 1877 record, a similar scenario could occur again on an even larger scale.
2027 Could Become the Hottest Year in Recorded History
Beyond its regional impacts, El Niño also acts as an amplifier of global temperatures. In general, a strong El Niño can push the Earth’s average temperature roughly 0.2°C above the existing long-term warming trend.
In its State of the Climate Assessment released on April 21, Climate Brief projected that 2027 could potentially break the record as the hottest year ever recorded if this El Niño reaches a very strong peak.
NOAA has even stated that 2026 is already “very likely” to rank among the five hottest years ever recorded, even before the full effects of El Niño are taken into account.
Major forecasting models from NOAA, ECMWF, and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology are now pointing in the same direction: the world needs to prepare for one of the strongest El Niño events in modern climate history.
