Food has become an instrument of strategic power in the international political economy. This article argues that Indonesia's decision to stop importing rice, corn, and sugar by 2026 is not merely a technical achievement but a political declaration that reshapes dependency structures in the global food regime.
With rice reserves reaching 5 million tons, the highest in history, Indonesia has moved from major importer to a force setting the food agenda in ASEAN. Climate change, land conversion, and archipelagic logistics remain tests of that resilience.
The global food crisis ongoing since 2024 confirms that food is no longer an agricultural issue but a power struggle. Developed countries deploy massive agricultural subsidies to dominate global markets while developing countries remain trapped in structural dependencies that undermine their sovereignty. Indonesia's response positions it as an exception to that pattern.
This article examines how Indonesia uses fiscal policy, bilateral diplomacy, and regional leadership to build food resilience, defined here as both the capacity to withstand external shocks and the ability to influence the global food regime at the regional level.
Food in International Political Economy
In the literature on international political economy, the issue of food self-sufficiency is understood as a silent weapon that powerful nations can use to control and even dominate the governing regimes of weaker nations.
The global food regime, dominated by multinational corporations and major exporting countries such as the United States (US), Brazil, and Argentina, has created a systematic structure of dependency.
Importing countries inevitably lose not only foreign exchange but also likely limit their political manoeuvrability, as any fluctuation in global prices directly impacts domestic economic stability.
Indonesia, for the past three decades, has been a classic example of this vulnerability. As the world's largest rice importer after China and Nigeria, Indonesia has consistently found itself in a weak bargaining position regarding food self-sufficiency.
Ultimately, every time a domestic harvest fails or global prices spike, the government is forced to purchase on the international market at a premium, which in turn burdens the state budget and triggers food inflation. This vicious cycle not only harms domestic economic growth but also undermines the political legitimacy of the ruling government.
Indonesia's Food Resilience: Policies and Achievements
In 2026, Indonesia demonstrated significant progress in building food resilience. The most strategic decision was the complete cessation of imports of rice, corn for animal feed, and sugar for household consumption. This decision was not merely an administrative target, but the result of the accumulation of massive investments in the agricultural sector over the past three years.
On the production side, the expansion of rice planting areas by 2.1 million hectares and the modernization of agricultural machinery have boosted national productivity to record levels. Well-targeted fertilizer subsidies ensure smallholder farmers have access to affordable inputs.
As a result, the projected annual national rice production reached 34.7 million tons, sufficient to meet national demand, with final stocks estimated at 16.2 million tons.
However, the most impressive achievement is the government's establishment of 5 million tons of rice reserves, the highest in Indonesia's history. Therefore, with an average national consumption rate of 1.1 million tons per month, these reserves are believed to be able to meet demand for up to five months without imports.
This strategic cushion allows Indonesia to withstand global price shocks without succumbing to pressure from global food exporting countries.
For corn, the initial stock of 4.5 million tons is sufficient to meet three months' demand, while annual production is projected to reach 18 million tons. This abundance even opens the door for Indonesia to reconsider corn exports, a possibility that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
For sugar, the initial reserves are sufficient for six months without imports, although the government is still open to imports as an industrial buffer stock.
Dimensions of National Sovereignty
In the context of international political economy, the ability to produce one's own food is the most fundamental foundation of national sovereignty.
A nation whose people continue to rely on food imports will never be truly independent, because its food supply is controlled by foreign powers. President Prabowo Subianto has asserted in various international forums that without national food self-sufficiency, there is no society, no independence, and no peace.
This statement is not mere rhetoric. Indonesia experienced and learned from the 1998 food crisis, which subsequently triggered social unrest and the fall of the New Order regime.
When rice prices soared and domestic stocks dwindled, the government's legitimacy clearly collapsed within weeks. This traumatic experience further shaped the collective awareness that food sovereignty is a prerequisite for long-term political stability.
In addition, with food resilience beginning to develop, Indonesia now has the tools to protect its people from external shocks. When exporting countries impose export bans or international speculators raise prices, Indonesia no longer panics. Possessing a 5-million-ton rice reserve is a real bargaining chip, a strategic asset no less important than a nation's military might.
Southeast Asian Stability and Regional Leadership
Indonesia's food transformation has direct implications for Southeast Asian stability. As the largest country in the region, Indonesia's food security directly impacts food prices and availability in neighbouring countries. When Indonesia successfully stabilizes its domestic supply, pressure on regional markets is significantly reduced.
At the ASEAN Summit on May 7-8, 2026, in Cebu, Philippines, Indonesia promoted three main initiatives: simplifying the ASEAN Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR) mechanism, strengthening locally based food reserves in each member state, and integrating food and energy policies, given their interconnectedness.
These initiatives have effectively positioned Indonesia as a key agenda-setting force in regional food cooperation, a role previously dominated by Thailand and Vietnam.
This regional leadership is even more crucial given the escalation of global conflict, particularly in the Middle East, which could disrupt energy distribution channels and trigger spikes in food prices.
In a worst-case scenario, ASEAN countries that are heavily dependent on food imports, particularly Singapore, which still relies on the global market for 90 percent of its needs, will continue to be in a precarious situation. Indonesia's food reserves are a substantial element of collective regional stability.
Future Challenges
Despite significant achievements, Indonesia's food resilience faces three major challenges. First, climate change, which triggers extreme weather phenomena such as prolonged El Niño, structurally threatens agricultural production.
Second, the conversion of agricultural land to industrial and residential areas continues to be widespread on Java, the nation's food basket. Third, the challenges of archipelagic logistics create high price disparities between regions, resulting in unequal access to food.
Addressing these challenges requires an integrated approach involving not only the Ministry of Agriculture but also the Ministry of Public Works for irrigation infrastructure and logistics, the Ministry of Agrarian Affairs and Spatial Planning/National Land Agency (ATR/BPN) for land conversion control, and the Ministry of Environment for climate change adaptation.
Ultimately, without cross-sectoral and inter-stakeholder coordination, the sustainability of national food resilience will be difficult to maintain.
Indonesia's strategic role in the region in achieving food resilience demonstrates how developing countries can free themselves from the shackles of the global food regime.
The successful cessation of imports of three strategic commodities—rice, corn, and sugar—by 2026 is not merely a technical achievement, but a clear declaration of sovereignty that is changing the power landscape in Southeast Asia.
In conclusion, with the highest rice reserves in history and recognized regional leadership within ASEAN, Indonesia has positioned itself as a determinant of regional stability. In an increasingly fragmented world, food has become a new currency of power.
Indonesia demonstrates that food self-sufficiency is the foundation for political independence. After decades of solid construction, the foundations of food self-sufficiency have been pursued.
