The Philippines has recorded a concerning new milestone. The country’s total fertility rate (TFR) dropped to 1.7 in 2025, the lowest level ever recorded since the first national survey was conducted in 1968.
This figure is well below the commonly accepted replacement level of 2.1, the minimum threshold required for a population to sustain itself without relying on migration.
The data comes from the 2025 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Monday, March 30, 2026. As the 13th survey in a national series dating back to 1968, it interviewed nearly 30,000 women aged 15 to 49 across the Philippines.
The decline has been dramatic. In 1993, the average Filipina woman had 4.1 children over her lifetime. That figure has now fallen to just 1.7, more than halved over three decades. Compared to the 2022 survey, which recorded a TFR of 1.9, the latest drop further reinforces a consistent downward trend with no clear signs of reversal.
Persistent Regional and Economic Gaps
While the decline in birth rates has occurred across all regions, income groups, and education levels, disparities remain striking. According to the Philippine News Agency, Calabarzon recorded the steepest decline, falling from 1.8 to 1.3, making it the region with the lowest TFR in the country.
The National Capital Region and Negros Island Region followed at 1.4. Meanwhile, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) still recorded the highest TFR at 2.4, although this marks a significant drop from 3.1 in 2022.
Zamboanga Peninsula followed at 2.3, and Caraga at 2.2. In urban areas, the TFR has fallen to as low as 1.5, while rural areas remain higher at 2.0.
Economic factors also reveal a stark contrast. Women from the wealthiest households have an average of just 1.1 children, down from 1.4 in 2022. In contrast, women from the poorest households still average 2.8 children, more than double the figure.
Education levels show a similar pattern. Women with only primary school education record the highest fertility rate among education groups, at 3.1, according to Philstar.
Women Choose Smaller Families
The decline in birth rates is largely driven by women’s own choices. According to the survey findings, 57.3 percent of married women stated that they no longer want to have additional children.
The use of modern contraceptives among married women has also increased, reaching 44.5 percent, up from 41.8 percent in 2022, with birth control pills being the most commonly used method.
However, access to family planning services remains uneven. Around 12.5 percent of married women reported having unmet needs for family planning, while 48 percent of sexually active unmarried women said they need contraception but are unable to access it, as reported by Philstar.
On a more positive note, the teenage pregnancy rate has dropped to a record low of 4.8 percent, down from its peak of 10.1 percent in 2013. Maternal and child health indicators have also improved, with births in healthcare facilities rising to 93.7 percent and the under-five mortality rate declining to 22 per 1,000 live births.
The Philippines Isn't Alone, Regional Birth Rates Keep Falling
The decline in birth rates is not unique to the Philippines. Thailand and Singapore are facing even more severe demographic pressures.
Thailand recorded just 416,514 births last year, the lowest figure in nearly 75 years, while deaths reached 559,684. According to the Bangkok Post, Thailand’s TFR now stands at around 1.0 to 1.2, making it the only country in Southeast Asia with a continuously declining birth rate.
Without significant policy intervention, Thailand’s population is projected to shrink from around 67 million today to just 30 million within the next five to six decades.
Singapore’s situation is even more alarming. Its TFR fell to 0.87 in 2025, the lowest in its history, with only about 27,500 citizen births recorded, also a historic low.
Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong described the situation as an “existential challenge.” “We cannot give up,” he said, as reported by CNA. Based on a TFR of 0.87, every 100 people today would result in only 44 children and 19 grandchildren in the future.
