For a long time, the United States was seen as the go-to partner for many countries in Southeast Asia. However, the latest data shows that a big switch is currently happening.
According to The State of Southeast Asia: 2026 Survey Report by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, the region has hit a turning point. This survey gathered 2.800 respondents across the region (including Timor-Leste), including policy experts, academics, business leaders, and journalists.
For the first time since the annual survey began, a majority of respondents in the region have chosen China over the United States if they were forced to pick a side.
Around 52.0% of respondents chose China, while the United States dropped to 48.0%. This is a total flip from last year, when the U.S. still held a narrow lead of 52.3%. It shows that people across the region are seriously rethinking who their most important ally really is.
The “Pro-China” Trend
The most striking part of this shift comes from Indonesia. The report reveals that 80.1% of Indonesian respondents would choose China over the U.S. if forced to align with one superpower.
Surprisingly, this is the highest percentage in all of ASEAN. Just one year ago, the number was already high at 72.2%, but now it has shot up even higher.
Why is this happening?
The answer comes down to economic influence. China is currently viewed as the most influential economic power in the region by 55.9% of respondents.
In Indonesia, 59.7% of respondents agree with this view. For many, China is seen as a partner with the vast economic resources and political will to provide global leadership.
The “Anxiety” Towards the U.S.
While China’s influence is growing, the U.S. is losing its ground, mostly because of its internal politics. The survey shows that 51.9% of people in the region identify U.S. leadership under President Donald Trump as their top geopolitical concern. There is a lot of anxiety about inconsistent policies and whether the U.S. will keep its long-term commitments to the region.
In Singapore, this concern is even higher at 76.8%, as the country is very sensitive to global trade risks. Many respondents worry that a "Trump 2.0" administration might use tariffs and sanctions to punish other countries, which could hurt the export-heavy economies of Southeast Asia. This fear has led many to look for more stable relationships elsewhere.
However, there is an important catch in these findings. Being influential does not necessarily mean being trusted. While China has overtaken the U.S. in popularity, Japan remains the most trusted major power in the region.
About 65.6% of respondents trust Japan to do the right thing for the global community, compared to 44.0% for the U.S. and 39.8% for China. People see Japan as a reliable partner that plays by the rules.
Furthermore, most Southeast Asians do not actually want to choose a side. The report highlights that 55.2% of respondents believe ASEAN should focus on its own "resilience and unity" to avoid being caught in the middle of this superpower rivalry.
