When conflict broke out in the Middle East on February 28, 2026, global crude oil prices rose by more than 30 percent. Natural gas prices also jumped by around 90 percent, according to the World Bank.
For Southeast Asia, the shock does not affect every country in the same way.
Think of each country as needing energy to keep its cars, factories, and power plants running. Countries that buy more oil from abroad feel higher prices more quickly. But the impact also depends on how strong their finances are and how much room their governments have to respond.
The World Bank looks at three things: how much energy a country imports, how vulnerable its finances are, and how much room the government has to respond.
When the Pressure Is Already High
Timor-Leste faces the heaviest pressure. Its external financing needs are equal to 48 percent of GDP. Its fiscal deficit is also projected to reach 49 percent of GDP in 2025.
In other words, the country already needs large amounts of money from both abroad and its own government budget. Higher energy prices add another challenge.
Laos faces several pressures at once. Oil and gas imports are equal to 8 percent of GDP. Its external financing needs reach 19 percent of GDP, while government debt stands at 81 percent of GDP.
The World Bank says these conditions leave Laos with very limited room to deal with another economic shock.
Myanmar faces a different problem. Inflation has reached 20 percent, the highest among the Southeast Asian economies covered by the data. This makes it harder for the central bank to respond to higher energy prices without adding further inflationary pressure.
When Higher Energy Costs Reach Households
In countries such as Thailand and the Philippines, the shock can show up more directly in the prices people pay.
Thailand's oil and gas imports are equal to about 7 percent of GDP. In a World Bank simulation, a US$20 increase in the price of crude oil would raise Thailand's inflation by 0.67 percentage points within six months.
The Philippines follows with a 0.62 percentage-point increase.
The Philippines also recorded a fiscal deficit of 5.6 percent of GDP in 2025. Higher energy costs can be especially difficult for lower-income households because they spend a larger share of their consumption on fuel and transportation.
Not Every Country Bears the Same Burden
Malaysia is in a different position. It is the only one of the nine countries in the World Bank data that is a net oil and gas exporter.
Its net oil and gas imports stand at minus 1 percent of GDP. When energy prices rise, this position can improve Malaysia's terms of trade.
Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia also have some buffers, even though they remain net energy importers. Strategic reserves, domestic refining capacity, and commodity export revenues can help absorb part of the shock.
In Indonesia and Malaysia, fuel subsidies and regulated pricing can also prevent global oil price increases from immediately passing through to consumers.
The World Bank data covers nine Southeast Asian economies. Singapore and Brunei are not included. Of those nine, five face greater vulnerability, while four have more buffers against the energy shock.
When the Shock Spreads Beyond Oil
Higher energy prices can affect more than fuel costs. They can also slow economic growth through trade and weaker global demand.
The World Bank estimates that a 1 percentage-point slowdown in G7 growth could reduce output in developing East Asia and the Pacific by around 0.6 percentage points the following year. A 1 percentage-point slowdown in China's growth could also reduce growth in other EAP economies by around 0.3 percentage points.
Growth in the region excluding China is projected to slow from 4.9 percent in 2025 to 4.1 percent in 2026. It is then expected to recover to 5.0 percent in 2027.
So when global oil prices rise, every country sees the same price increase. But they do not face the same consequences. Some must pay more for imported energy, while others have exports, reserves, or government support that can soften the blow.
