Indonesia's 1-2 loss to China in the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers on October 15, 2024, has dealt a blow to their position in Group C. This defeat has complicated their chances of advancing, as the path to qualification becomes increasingly difficult. Although Shin Tae-yong's team still has a chance to secure a spot in the top two, the task is now much more challenging.
To finish in the top two of Group C, Indonesia must gain at least 6 to 8 more points. Achieving this will require strong performances in the remaining matches, especially in their home games against Bahrain and China. These fixtures will be crucial if Indonesia wants to keep their hopes for automatic qualification alive.
The Importance of Home Wins
With their standing in the group becoming precarious, Indonesia's home matches against Bahrain and China are particularly significant. Securing victories in these games would give them a chance to gather the points necessary to finish in one of the top two positions. The competition, however, remains stiff, as several teams are fighting for the same spots.
Currently, Japan is leading Group C comfortably with 10 points, while Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain are all level on five points. This tight contest means that Indonesia must perform consistently in their upcoming matches and hope for favorable results from other games in the group.
Path to Automatic Qualification
To automatically qualify for the 2026 World Cup finals, Indonesia needs to finish first or second in Group C. This target is still within reach, but the competition is fierce. Japan has emerged as the dominant team in the group, remaining unbeaten so far. The other teams in contention, particularly Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, are also vying for top positions.
Indonesia must secure at least two wins and two draws from their remaining six matches to have a realistic shot at finishing in the top two. They will also need to rely on slip-ups from teams like Australia and Saudi Arabia to keep their chances alive. This situation puts considerable pressure on Indonesia to perform in every upcoming match.
Aiming for Third or Fourth Place
Even if Indonesia does not finish in the top two, there is still a possibility of advancing to the fourth round by finishing third or fourth in the group standings. This more realistic goal could provide a pathway for further qualification opportunities, though it will also depend on how other teams perform.
The remaining matches in Group C will be critical in determining Indonesia's fate. With strong competition from Japan and several other teams, Indonesia must focus on securing points and improving their overall standing to keep their World Cup dreams alive.
