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Thailand Aims for 3% Growth in 2025 with Tourism & Exports

Thailand Aims for 3% Growth in 2025 with Tourism & Exports
Photo by Dan Freeman on Unsplash

Thailand is projected to achieve economic growth of 3.0% in 2025, driven primarily by tourism, exports, and private consumption. 

The Ministry of Finance has maintained this forecast in its latest report, despite ongoing economic challenges facing Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.

Thailand’s Economic Performance in 2024 and 2025 Projections

According to data from the Thai Ministry of Finance, the country’s economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, slightly lower than the initial estimate of 2.7%. This downward revision is due to a decline in industrial investment, particularly in the automotive sector, which contracted more sharply than previously anticipated.

To support economic recovery, the Thai government has set a growth target of 3.0% for 2025, with the potential to reach 3.5% if public spending can be further stimulated.

Also read: Thailand Approves TikTok's $3.8 Billion Data Centre Investment

Exports as a Key Growth Driver

Exports, one of the main engines of Thailand’s economy, are expected to grow by 4.4% in 2025, an improvement from the previous forecast of 3.1%. A global demand recovery and market diversification are anticipated to strengthen the country’s trade performance.

However, the automotive industry—historically one of Thailand’s leading export sectors—continues to face significant challenges. Thai automotive production has reached its lowest level in four years due to weak domestic demand and slowing exports.

Also read: Thailand Accelerates High-Speed Rail to China, Set to Operate by 2030

Impact of the Transition to Electric Vehicles

Thailand has long been a major manufacturing and export hub for conventional vehicles in Southeast Asia, with leading automakers such as Toyota and Honda operating production facilities in the country. However, the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) presents a new challenge for Thailand’s automotive industry.

Chinese EV manufacturers, which offer more competitive prices, are putting pressure on Thailand’s traditional automotive supply chain. In response, the Thai government is actively encouraging investment in the EV sector, including the development of EV components, to ensure a smooth transition and maintain the country’s status as a key player in the automotive industry.

Also read: Travel Update: New Rules for Visiting Thailand Starting May 1

Recovery of Private Investment

Private investment, which contracted by 2.7% in 2024, is expected to rebound with a 2.7% growth in 2025. This recovery is largely attributed to new government incentives aimed at attracting foreign investment, particularly in technology, cloud services, and data centers.

Several global tech giants have expressed interest in investing in Thailand. ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, plans to invest $3.8 billion in cloud storage services in the country. 

Additionally, Google and Amazon Web Services have announced their own investment plans. The presence of major digital investments is expected to enhance Thailand’s economic competitiveness in the long term.

Also read: Thailand Welcomes 31 Million Tourists: Setting the Stage for a Record-Breaking 2025

Tourism Remains a Key Economic Pillar

Tourism, a cornerstone of Thailand’s economy, is projected to attract 38.5 million foreign visitors in 2025. Although this is slightly lower than the initial forecast of 39 million, it remains close to the pre-pandemic record of 40 million arrivals in 2019.

However, the Thai government remains cautious about potential challenges, particularly concerns among Chinese tourists regarding safety. The recent disappearance of actor Wang Xing at the Thailand-Myanmar border has raised security questions.

In response, the Thai government has taken steps to reassure Chinese tourists and has pledged to strengthen security measures to maintain confidence among travelers.

In 2024, Thailand recorded 35.5 million international arrivals, marking a 26.3% increase from the previous year. Chinese tourists continue to be a key market, accounting for nearly 20% of total arrivals.

Also read: Thailand Named Travel and Leisure's Destination of the Year 2025

Stable Inflation and an Optimistic Economic Outlook

The Thai government expects headline inflation to be 0.9% in 2025, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 1.0%. This figure falls within the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1% to 3%, indicating relatively stable price levels.

Overall, despite challenges in certain sectors, Thailand’s economy shows strong recovery prospects. With growing exports, a rebound in private investment, and a return of tourism to pre-pandemic levels, the country is on track to achieve its 2025 economic growth target.

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