Myanmar’s plans to expand its renewable energy sector, focusing on solar and hydropower to boost energy security and support rural development, are being hindered by severe challenges. Since the 2021 military coup, the country has faced an ongoing energy crisis, including electricity shortages, frequent blackouts, and a decline in power generation.
Although the 2021 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets ambitious goals for clean energy—targeting 11% of energy from non-hydro renewables by 2030, with a potential rise to 17% with international help—the country is struggling to meet these targets due to political instability and economic setbacks.
Strategic Shift or Stalled Ambition? Myanmar's Energy Goals
Myanmar has long aimed to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and biomass, focusing on its rich natural resources, including hydropower and solar energy. The National Electrification Plan (NEP) set a goal of 100% electricity access by 2030, heavily depending on renewable energy.
The Myanmar Energy Master Plan from 2015 proposed a mix dominated by hydropower (57%) and coal (30%), with only 5% from wind and solar. Later targets aimed for 8% wind and solar by 2021, and 12% by 2025.
The 2021 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) now targets 11% of energy from wind and solar by 2030, with the potential to increase to 17% with international support. Hydropower remains central to the energy mix.
However, Myanmar faces major challenges in meeting these goals. Political instability since the 2021 coup has led to a collapse in power capacity, and crucial international funding has been suspended, undermining progress.
The target of 100% electrification by 2030 now seems out of reach. The lack of investment and damaged infrastructure create a significant gap between Myanmar’s energy ambitions and the harsh realities it faces.
Harnessing Sun and Water: Project Developments
Myanmar's renewable energy strategy focuses on solar and hydropower, leveraging abundant resources like high solar irradiation in the central dry zones and vast hydropower potential. These sources are key to reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
Myanmar’s first large-scale solar project, the Minbu Solar Power Plant, started before the coup. By early 2024, six to eight solar plants were operational, with a combined capacity of 182-241 MW. New solar projects are under construction, totaling 1,026 MW, but political instability has hindered foreign investment and progress.
Hydropower, making up nearly 45-47% of Myanmar's power pre-crisis, remains vital. The controversial revival of the Myitsone Dam in May 2024, a Chinese-backed project, has sparked concerns over environmental damage and ethnic tensions. Existing hydropower plants face disruptions due to conflict and infrastructure damage.
Wind energy potential is also high, estimated at over 33 GW, with projects like the Chaung Thar wind farm and planned developments with China and Russia. However, installed wind capacity remains very low.
Overall, Myanmar's energy sector faces challenges due to political instability, security risks, and environmental concerns, making its ambitious renewable goals difficult to achieve.
Powering Rural Communities: The Electrification Drive
Myanmar's National Electrification Plan (NEP) aimed to provide universal electricity access by 2030, with a strong focus on off-grid solutions for remote rural areas. The goal was to improve living conditions in underserved regions, supporting education, healthcare, and local economies.
The NEP's off-grid strategy included mini-grids powered by renewable sources, serving 22,500 households and public facilities. It also provided solar home systems (SHS) to around 421,000 households and supported community initiatives, like training women as solar engineers to bring electricity to their villages.
Before the coup, Myanmar made significant progress in electrification, increasing household access from 33% in 2014 to 50% in 2019. The World Bank’s funding was expected to connect 1.2 million households by 2021.
However, the energy situation worsened post-coup, with many off-grid systems threatened by conflict, rising fuel costs, and a lack of skilled labor. Despite this, some mini-grids have continued to operate reliably, showing the potential of decentralized renewable energy systems.
Affordability remains a challenge, with high installation costs for many households. The success of community-led projects highlights the importance of local capacity building for the sustainability of rural energy solutions.
External Lifelines? Collaboration and Investment Landscape
Myanmar's energy sector has relied heavily on international partnerships, but since the 2021 coup, the landscape has changed.
China is the dominant external player, involved in major energy projects like the Myitsone hydropower dam and pipelines for oil and gas. These projects are part of China's Belt and Road Initiative but come with risks due to Myanmar's conflict zones.
Myanmar is also part of ASEAN, which has regional energy cooperation goals, including increasing renewable energy. However, Myanmar's internal crisis and poor infrastructure make it difficult to participate in regional energy projects.
The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank were major funders of Myanmar’s energy sector but have suspended funding since the coup. This withdrawal has created a significant gap in funding for large-scale energy projects.
Some international organizations, like the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP), continue to support smaller-scale, decentralized energy solutions, such as rooftop solar for small businesses. However, these efforts focus on specific needs rather than large infrastructure upgrades.
Myanmar's renewable energy goals, particularly in solar and hydropower, are hindered by the severe political crisis and conflict since 2021.
Power shortages, damaged infrastructure, and lack of investment have caused a collapse of the energy sector, making it unlikely to achieve national electrification and renewable energy targets in the near future.
Overcoming these challenges requires political stability, security restoration, and significant investment in energy infrastructure.
