Southeast Asia insists it is not choosing sides. The data suggests the choice is increasingly being made for it. New survey figures from the 2026 State of Southeast Asia Report reveal a region where China is consolidating its position as the primary strategic partner, while the United States recedes into a narrower, more precarious second place. The shift is incremental. The direction is unmistakable.
China now scores 9.1 out of 11.0 in perceived strategic relevance, while the United States follows at 8.6. This widening gap indicates that Beijing’s influence is no longer just a matter of proximity. It is becoming entrenched.
The Ledger of Influence
China’s lead is built on the cold reality of the balance sheet. It remains the region’s dominant economic gravity well, cited by 55.9% of respondents as the most influential economic power. Trade, investment, and infrastructure link Southeast Asian capitals to Beijing with a physical and financial permanence that Washington struggles to match. Growth strategies in the region are often derivatives of China’s own industrial trajectory.
However, this influence is not synonymous with affection. The data highlights a persistent, sharpening unease, with 55.4% of respondents worried about China's growing economic influence. Concerns regarding political leverage and strategic coercion remain high. Southeast Asia is economically tethered to China but remains deeply uncomfortable with the resulting dependence.
The United States retains a reservoir of trust that China lacks, particularly in security. Yet trust is a secondary currency when compared to day-to-day economic presence. American influence is increasingly viewed as intermittent and, more damagingly, unpredictable, with 51.9% of respondents identifying US leadership under President Trump as their top geopolitical concern.
A House Divided
The region is effectively a statistical stalemate. If forced to choose between the two superpowers, a slim majority of 52.0% would align with China, while 48.0% would choose the United States.
This narrow margin is not a sign of stability. It is a mask for deep internal fragmentation. Mainland states often lean toward Beijing, driven by geographic and economic integration. Maritime states, wary of China’s naval assertions in the South China Sea; where 51.7% fear EEZ encroachments, continue to view Washington as an essential counterweight. ASEAN cannot move decisively in either direction without risking a structural break in its own cohesion.
The Fragility of Autonomy
The preferred strategy for the bloc remains insulation. Approximately 55.2% of respondents prioritize strengthening ASEAN’s own resilience and unity as the primary defense against superpower rivalry. This is a defensive posture. It reflects a desire to avoid the crossfire rather than an ambition to shape the global order.
Strategic autonomy is under unprecedented strain. The rivalry is intensifying across technology and maritime security, and Southeast Asia sits at the precise intersection of these pressures. The traditional "hedging" strategy is becoming harder to maintain as both Washington and Beijing demand more explicit signals of alignment.
Consistency Over Capability
Influence in the region is being redefined. It is no longer measured solely by military presence. It is defined by policy consistency and perceived reliability. On these metrics, China is gaining ground.
The United States remains a critical player, but its relative position is eroding. The challenge for Washington is no longer to regain its post-Cold War dominance. It is to remain indispensable in an environment where China is now the default economic partner.
The difference between a score of 9.1 and 8.6 may appear negligible. The difference in their trajectories is anything but. Southeast Asia is not pivoting. It is adjusting to a reality where China is the center of the regional solar system. ASEAN’s ability to remain non-aligned will depend less on its own diplomacy and more on the volatility of the two powers it seeks to avoid.
Source: The State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey Report - ASEAN Studies Centre at
the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute
