The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its projections for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024, painting a nuanced picture of economic performance across major global economies. According to the IMF's 2024 World Economic Outlook, while global growth is expected to remain steady at 3.2%, many key nations are facing downward revisions in their growth forecasts compared to the previous year.
The IMF's data highlights contrasting trends between G7 countries and the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Among the BRICS member countries, only Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and South Africa are projected to see higher real GDP growth rates in 2024 compared to 2023. Notably, China and India are anticipated to maintain robust growth rates at 4.6% and 6.8% respectively, albeit slower than their 2023 figures.
Conversely, four G7 nations are poised for stronger growth in 2024, with Germany notably rebounding from negative growth in 2023. Overall, however, the majority of G7 and BRICS nations are expected to experience slower economic growth in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Despite these adjustments, the BRICS nations collectively maintain a significantly higher average growth forecast of 3.6% compared to the G7 average of 1%. This divergence underscores the ongoing shift in global economic dynamics, with BRICS nations demonstrating resilience and potential for future expansion.
While the G7 economies collectively exceed the BRICS nations by approximately $15 trillion in GDP size, the sustained higher growth rates of BRICS countries suggest a potential future shift in economic influence. With ongoing economic reforms and potential membership expansion, the BRICS bloc could surpass the G7 in economic size within the coming decades, reshaping global economic landscapes in the process.
