Climate scientists are warning that El Niño could return in 2026, with the potential to hit Southeast Asia hard. The World Meteorological Organization says neutral conditions still dominate for now, but the chance of El Niño rises to about 40% between May and July. Meanwhile, NOAA estimates a 62% likelihood of it forming between June and August.
NOAA also warns that if El Niño develops, there is roughly a one-in-three chance it could intensify into a strong event by late 2026. Regional outlooks suggest the current La Niña phase will fade into neutral conditions around March to April, before potentially shifting toward El Niño by mid-year.
For Thailand and the wider ASEAN region, drought is the most immediate concern. Lower rainfall and longer dry periods could reduce water levels in key reservoirs, disrupting household supply, industrial needs, and national water management systems.
Agriculture is also at risk across major producers like Thailand, Viet Nam, and Indonesia. The Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency warns that weaker harvests in rice, sugar, and palm oil could tighten supply and push food prices higher across the region.
Hotter and drier weather may also increase wildfire risks, especially in Indonesia’s peatlands, worsening haze and PM2.5 pollution. Experts stress the need for early action, from water management to crop adjustments and stronger regional cooperation, as the window to prepare for a possible strong El Niño continues to narrow.
