The Philippines has recorded its lowest-ever birth rate, with the 2025 National Demographic and Health Survey released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) revealing a total fertility rate (TFR) of just 1.7 children per woman, down from 1.9 in 2022 and less than half the 4.1 rate recorded back in 1993.
This figure falls well below the 2.1 replacement level generally needed for a population to sustain itself without migration, based on the survey of 29,694 women aged 15 to 49, with the decline largely driven by women's own preferences, as 57.3% of married women said they want no more children.
Regional disparities remain stark, with the National Capital Region posting one of the lowest rates at 1.4 and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao recording the highest at 2.4, while fertility in rural areas stands at 2.0 compared to just 1.5 in urban centers.
On a positive note, teenage childbearing fell to a historic low of just 4.8% among girls aged 15 to 19, down sharply from 10.1% in 2013, while institutional births rose to 93.7% and under-five child mortality declined to 22 deaths per 1,000 live births.
Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow Jose Ramon Albert and Commission on Population and Development Deputy Executive Director Lolito Tacardon warned that the country is entering a "late demographic transition phase," with an aging population threatening to strain the labor force, tax revenues, healthcare spending, and long-term fiscal health if the trend is left unaddressed.
