In the Mekong Delta, water is both a source of life and a slowly approaching threat. Much of the Mekong Delta and Red River Delta lies only a few dozen centimeters above sea level. Both regions are home to most of Viet Nam’s population and serve as the country’s main sources of food production.
This condition makes Viet Nam highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. In January 2020, Moody’s Investors Service stated that Viet Nam had the world’s largest economic exposure to sea-level rise, with around 10.2 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) potentially affected.
This figure was higher than those of Egypt and Suriname, at 6.4 percent each, and Benin, at 5.6 percent.
Taking into account population, land area, agricultural land, urbanization, and wetlands, Viet Nam remains among the countries most exposed to sea-level rise in the world. Ho Chi Minh City is also among the most vulnerable, in terms of population, land area, and economic activity.
Six Years Later, the Risks Are Becoming More Visible
A 2026 report by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) again highlights the scale of these risks.
The study Impact of Sea Level Rise on Land Loss in Viet Nam uses sea-level rise projections, high-resolution elevation data, and land-use data to estimate areas that could potentially experience permanent land loss.
The issue is not only about coastlines. Viet Nam’s economic activity has become concentrated in low-lying coastal areas, particularly the Mekong Delta and Red River Delta. Both regions are centers of rice production and aquaculture, while also being close to industrial and service-sector development.
Viet Nam has ratified the Paris Agreement and set a target of carbon neutrality by 2050. However, much of its economic activity and population is already located in areas that are geographically vulnerable.
82 Percent of Land, Only 15 Percent of Value Added
Data from Viet Nam’s General Statistics Office analyzed by GIZ-IWH reveal another disparity.
The agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector contributes around 15 percent of Viet Nam’s total economic value added, but uses 82 percent of the country’s land area. In contrast, industry and services generate around 75 percent of economic value added while using only 18 percent of the land.
This means that the sector using the most land has a lower economic value added per unit of land. And much of this land is located in delta areas with the lowest elevations.
As sea levels rise, the risk of land loss is therefore not only an environmental issue. The livelihoods of farmers and fishers are also coming under pressure.
The Mekong Delta Bears the Greatest Risk
Among Viet Nam’s six statistical regions, the Mekong Delta is the area most exposed to sea-level rise, followed by the Red River Delta.
Under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 scenario, sea levels could rise by around one meter by the end of this century. Under this condition, Viet Nam could potentially lose up to 7 percent of its currently used agricultural, forestry, and fisheries land.
Land loss does not occur linearly. Around 3.5 percent of agricultural land is projected to be lost when sea-level rise reaches 55–60 centimeters. This figure then increases to around 6.75 percent when the rise approaches one meter.
The Mekong Delta accounts for the largest share of potential land loss under nearly all scenarios tested.
The Risks Are Already Visible in the Economy
A study published in Discover Sustainability in 2024 also shows that the impacts could increase over time.
Under a moderate scenario, sea-level rise is projected to reach around 8 centimeters by 2030, 17 centimeters by 2050, 32 centimeters by 2080, and 41 centimeters by 2100.
In the Mekong Delta, agricultural land loss is projected to reach 2.9 percent in 2025 and 2050, before increasing to 7.1 percent by 2100. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change on Viet Nam’s economy, including sea-level rise, were estimated to reach around 3.2 percent of GDP in 2020.
Adaptation Does Not Only Mean Building Dikes
The GIZ-IWH report emphasizes that these figures represent exposure levels based on current land use, rather than certainty about the future.
Viet Nam still has room to adapt, ranging from coastal protection and changes in land use to relocating populations and economic activities to safer areas. In the long term, economic activity could even shift inland as people and capital move.
However, there is one thing that economic models have difficulty measuring: what is lost when a community has to leave a delta that has been its home, source of livelihood, and part of its history for generations.
For Viet Nam, sea-level rise is therefore not simply a question of how far the water will reach inland. It also concerns how far its economy and society will have to change to face it.
