The ongoing Iran conflict is casting a long shadow over Thailand's tourism industry in 2026. The Middle East war, which has shut down regional airspace, has had particular consequences for European markets that had only recently regained strong momentum, according to Thailand's Minister of Tourism and Sports, Artthakorn Sirilatthayakorn, following a meeting with the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).
In the worst-case scenario, the TAT forecasts a 25% decline from the 2026 target of 36.7 million visitors, bringing arrivals down to between 27 and 29 million. If the conflict ends within three months, an 18% decline to 30 to 31 million is projected, while an early resolution within two to four weeks would limit the damage to just 2%.
Early data already reflects the pressure. From March 1 to 9, 2026, over 741,000 tourists visited Thailand, down 5.69% year-on-year. Arrivals from the Middle East plunged 76.51%, European visitors dropped 14.39%, and U.S. arrivals fell 7.37%.
Airlines on European routes have been forced to revise schedules, with fuel alone accounting for 25% of airline operating costs, pushing airfares higher. Around 134 flights to Thailand have been disrupted, while approximately 59 routes to the Middle East have been outright cancelled.
In response, the TAT is aggressively pivoting to short-haul markets. Tourism Council of Thailand President Chai Arunanondchai noted that the strategy is shifting toward India, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, and Australia to offset the slowdown in Europe and the Middle East, while TAT hopes to still reach at least 30 million arrivals by year's end.
